What the Philadelphia Phillies Need to Do to Earn a Wild Card Spot

Earning a wild card berth is the most realistic path to the postseason for the Philadelphia Phillies, but it won't be an easy task.

Leo Morgenstern | Jul 3, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

It is Fourth of July weekend, and the Philadelphia Phillies are inching closer and closer to the halfway point of their season.

They are 41-38, seven and a half games out of first place in the NL East, but just one and a half back in the Wild Card race. The postseason is within reach for this baseball team.

The Phillies have been in this position before.

On July 2, 2018, they were 45-37 and one game ahead of the Dodgers for the second Wild Card spot.

On July 2, 2019, they were 45-50 and half a game up on the Cubs for the first Wild Card spot.

On July 2, 2020, the season had yet to begin. But on September 2, 2020, the Phillies were 17-15 and in fifth place in the National League, easily on pace to make the 16-team expanded playoffs that year.

On July 2, 2021 they were still below .500. But a month after that, they capped an eight-game winning streak with a sweep of the New York Mets and took a two-game lead in the NL East with just 60 left to play.

In each of those seasons, Philadelphia went on to collapse at some point in the second half. This year, they have a chance to put the past behind them and earn the first Wild Card berth in franchise history.

What the Phillies Have to Do to Be a Wild Card Team

Kyle Schwarber has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the start of June. — Kyle Schwarber has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the start of June / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Here are some numbers to keep in mind.

Eight teams are sure to be buyers at the trade deadline: the Dodgers, Mets, Brewers, Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies.

Three of those teams will win their division. The Dodgers, Brewers, and Mets seem to be the favorites right now. The other five teams will vie for three Wild Card spots. That means that the Phillies—in order to make the postseason—must finish with a better record than two of the eight contending teams.

Over the past ten full seasons, the team that would have claimed the third Wild Card spot has averaged 85.3 wins. So far in 2022, the Phillies have played at an 84-win pace. That sounds promising.

This year, however, 85 probably will not be enough. Teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Giants, and Padres have very talented rosters, and all of them will seek out upgrades at the trade deadline. It's hard to imagine that three of those teams won't surpass 85 wins.

Heading into today, FanGraphs projected the Giants to edge out the Phillies and Cardinals for the third Wild Card spot with 87 wins. Baseball Reference also projected the Giants to take that final postseason spot, but with 89 wins.

To finish with 87 wins, the Phillies will need to win 46 of their remaining 83 games. That's a .554 winning percentage, or a 90-win pace. To finish with 89 wins would require Philadelphia to play at a 94-win pace for the rest of the year.

To earn a Wild Card berth, the Phillies will have to play better baseball than they have so far. Thankfully, this team has a few things going for them that they haven't had in seasons past.

What the Phillies Have Going for Them

Kyle Schwarber celebrates with Bryson Stott. — Kyle Schwarber celebrates with Bryson Stott / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies teams that collapsed in each of the past four seasons were not as talented as the team is now. While the Phillies found themselves in a playoff position on July 2 in both 2018 and 2019, they only had a positive six-run differential at this time in both years.

As of July 2, the 2022 Phillies have a +41 run differential. That means that according to their Pythagorean win-loss record, Philadelphia has played at the level of an 89-win team. By Pythagorean winning percentage, the Phillies are the sixth-best team in the NL right now, better than the Giants and Brewers.

Moreover, Philadelphia has had one of the toughest schedules in baseball for the first three months of the season. By the strength of schedule metric from ESPN, no NL team has faced harder competition thus far. Going forward, the schedule gets much easier.

So, while the Phillies are not in a Wild Card spot quite yet, their run differential suggests they have played like a Wild Card-worthy team, and they are set to face an easier slate of opponents in the coming months. Those are both very good reasons to be optimistic about Philadelphia's postseason chances this year.

What the Phillies Have Going Against Them?

Bryce Harper falls to the ground after suffering a hit-by-pitch on his thumb. — Bryce Harper falls to the ground after suffering a hit-by-pitch on his thumb / © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Harper will miss a significant portion of the season, and that is going to severely impact Philadelphia's playoff chances. Harper is the best hitter on the team, and his absence will be felt. There are no two ways about it.

The Phillies have multiple players who can step up to fill the Harper-sized hole in the lineup. Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm have been slumping all year, and if the three of them can start hitting again, it well help to make up for the missing MVP. Even so, staying afloat without Harper will be a daunting task for Philadelphia.

The other daunting obstacle in this team's path is the month of September, a time during which they have struggled mightily in recent years.

Since 2018, the Phillies have a .516 winning percentage in the first three months of the season, and they have been even better in the summer. Dating back to 2018, Philadelphia has a .544 winning percentage in July and a .523 winning percentage in August.

In September and October, however, it's a completely different story. Over the past four seasons, the Phillies are 47-69 in September/October. Over a full season, that would be a 66-win pace.

If Philadelphia is going to earn a Wild Card berth this year, they cannot collapse at the end of the season. The Phillies will need to prove they can win in September.

Going in their favor is the fact that Harper will hopefully be back by then (as will Jean Segura), so Philadelphia will be playing at full strength. Still, the final weeks of the season will be a real test of this team's mettle.

If the Phillies can keep their heads above water for the next two months without their best player, and if they can finally post a winning record in September, they're in very good shape. They have played good baseball so far, and the schedule is in their favor for the rest of the season.

It won't be easy, but a Wild Card berth is well within this team's grasp.

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Published Jul 3, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.