Why Phillies' Castellanos is Primed for Best Season of His Career

Nick Castellanos signed a five-year, $100 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies March 22, can he live up to that billing?

Ben Silver | Mar 31, 2022

Free agents that sign with MLB clubs as late into spring as Nick Castellanos did generally don’t make waves in their first season with a new team.

It was apparent with Bryce Harper when he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies on March 2, 2019 and it was apparent when Jake Arrieta signed on March 12, 2018. Castellanos made his deal with the Phillies official March 22, 2022, so what makes him different?

Unlike Arrieta and Harper, who were both coming out of down years, Castellanos had the best season of his career in 2021. At age 30, he’s entering his prime as a hitter and excluding 2020, his OPS has been trending upwards since 2016.

Now he’s moved to one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly stadiums in Citizens Bank Park. Since 2019, Castellanos has hit 75 home runs. Had he played every game in Philadelphia, Baseball Savant says he would have hit 79 home runs in its hitter-friendly confines.

Further analytics agree that Castellanos is primed for further growth as a hitter. He’s been hitting the ball harder more often. Since 2018, Castellanos’s hard hit% has increased every year. From 2018 to 2019, it increased .8%, then 5.2% in 2020 and another .2% in 2021. At 46.9% of batted balls hit over 95 mph last year, he ranked 13th in the National League, only 3 mph behind Phillies' team leader Harper.

Now, working alongside super star hitting coach Kevin Long, there’s no reason Castellanos shouldn’t continue to improve. Long has shown the ability to make good hitters great before, most notably with Kyle Schwarber in 2021. But Long’s arrival in Washington in 2018 directly coincided with Trea Turner’s establishment as one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball.

Delving deeper into Castellanos’ advanced stats, we’ll see that his 2021 slash line of .309/.362/.576 is substantiated by his BAPIP. A BABIP of .340 might sound unsustainable, but remember that Castellanos has one of the league’s highest hard hit rates, his BABIP is supposed to be above league average. For his career, Castellanos BABIP is .331, and outside of 2020’s shortened season, his year-end BABIP has never strayed more than .030 from that total.

Aside from continued improvement, what has to happen for Castellanos to build upon his 2021 slash line?

First, he’ll need some luck on his side. Baseball is a somewhat arbitrary sport. Castellanos experienced the downside of that in 2020 when he had the highest average exit velocity (91.0 mph) of his career, but his lowest OPS since 2015.

That season, his BABIP dipped all the way in .257 in a small sample size, his batted balls just weren’t falling for hits. If Castellanos can get lucky in the first half of 2022, like he got unlucky in 2020, his OPS could match the 1.002 he put up with the Chicago Cubs post-trade deadline in 2019.

It’s clear from Castellanos’ initial press conference that he plays with emotion, and his heart on his sleeve. A first-half confidence boost could propel an even better second-half.

Getting an MVP season out of Castellanos wouldn’t require just one of these things to go as planned, but getting the benefits of just a few different intangibles could propel Castellanos to elite company.

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Published Mar 31, 2022

BEN SILVER

Ben Silver is deputy editor for Inside the Phillies. A graduate of Boston University, Ben formerly covered the Phillies for PhilliesNation.com. Follow him on Twittter @BenHSilver.