The Philadelphia Phillies Started the Wrong Pitchers in Arizona

Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez have struggled against the Diamondbacks throughout their careers, and that trend continued over the past two nights.

A lot has gone wrong for the Philadelphia Phillies over the past two nights in Phoenix. But while the team played some sloppy defense, the bats went silent for several innings at a time, and the bullpen looked far from spectacular, the real problem was the starting pitching.

On back-to-back nights, Ranger Suárez and Aaron Nola struggled against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing a combined 14 runs in 7.2 innings of work. The Phillies are counting on both Suárez and Nola to shut down opposing lineups in the postseason, so it was more than a little concerning to watch them flail against the middling Diamondbacks lineup.

However, this is not the first time either of those pitchers has run into trouble in Arizona.

Suárez has already faced the Diamondbacks seven times in his young big league career. In those seven games (four starts) he has allowed 22 runs (15 earned) and batters are slashing 327/.422/.471 against him.

For comparison, all other opponents have hit .236/.299/.346 with a .645 OPS against Suárez in his career. In other words, Arizona hitters have performed like 2020 Alec Bohm against Suárez. All other hitters have performed like 2021 Alec Bohm.

Meanwhile, Nola has an 8.41 ERA in 20.1 career innings pitched versus the D-backs. Somewhat surprisingly, he has only made four starts against them in his career, but that has probably been for the best. Arizona has hit .341/.368/.495 against him.

Even ignoring his latest disastrous start, Nola has a 6.06 ERA in his other three starts against them. He allowed 24 baserunners and 11 runs in 16.1 innings of work. Few teams have had more success off him.

Aaron Nola allowed eight earned runs in four innings against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night / © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Somehow, the Diamondbacks have had Suárez and Nola completely figured out over the years. They have also hit well against Wednesday night's starter Bailey Falter in his two appearances against them.

All in all, Nola, Suárez, and Falter have combined to pitch 46.0 innings against Arizona. They have given up 43 runs (36 earned) and a .335/.395/.490 slash line. The Phillies are 3-10 in those games. So Rob Thomson probably wasn't thrilled when he looked at the schedule and realized he'd be handing the ball to those three pitchers in Phoenix. 

It's not as if there's much Thomson could have done. He and the front office have already been rearranging the schedule and the roster to manage Noah Syndergaard's workload and preserve Zack Wheeler's arm. He needed Nola and Suárez to start this week, and he needed them to be better than they were.

It is unfortunate, though, that the schedule worked out the way it did, because Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Kyle Gibson have all been pretty great facing the Diamondbacks in their careers.

• Syndergaard: 4 starts, 25.2 IP, 2.45 ERA
• Gibson: 5 starts, 30.0 IP, 2.10 ERA
• Wheeler: 9 starts, 58.0 IP, 2.95 ERA

Zach Eflin, too, has done good work against Arizona. In four games (three starts), he has a 3.38 ERA and Diamondbacks batters are hitting .218 off of him with a .614 OPS. 

The difference between Nola/Suárez/Falter's awful numbers versus the Arizona and Syndergaard/Gibson/Wheeler/Eflin's excellent numbers against the very same team is almost comical. The Phillies have several pitchers on the roster who dominate the D-backs, but of course none of them were available for this particular series.

In many ways, baseball is a game of timing. If this series in Phoenix had come at a slightly different time, it could have had a very different result. 

Ranger Suárez didn't have his best stuff against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday / © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

For whatever reason, certain pitchers struggle against certain teams. Sometimes it's just a small sample size coincidence, and sometimes it's a sign of a bigger issue. Either way, it's safe to say in hindsight the Phillies would have been better off had Syndergard, Gibson, or Wheeler been able to start a game in Phoenix. 

Over the course of a 162-game season, every team will have pockets of good and bad luck. Usually, it all evens itself out in the end. Philadelphia was unable to optimize their rotation in Arizona – and they played some of their worst games of the season – but that's just baseball. The Phillies remain ensconced in a playoff spot, and they have several games remaining against weak opponents to cushion their Wild Card lead. 

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