Nola is a Cy Young Candidate When He Can Win on the Road

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has struggled on the road throughout his career, but his away numbers in 2022 look very promising.

Leo Morgenstern | May 27, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola has always been dominant at Citizens Bank Park. His career ERA at home is 3.15, and he averages more than six innings per start in his home ballpark.

The Phillies’ home stadium is often considered hitter-friendly, but Nola thrives in the park he knows best.

Since his first full season in 2017, Nola’s home ERA is 2.97. That number ranks ninth in baseball in that span (min. 300 IP). Of the eight guys ahead of him, six are Cy Young winners, and the other two – Walker Buehler and Adam Wainwright – are no slouches either. That’s pretty good company to be in.

Nola’s numbers on the road, unfortunately, tell a very different story. His career road ERA (4.22) is more than a full run higher than his career home ERA. In the five seasons Nola has qualified for the ERA title, he has only posted a road ERA lower than 4.00 once – his Cy Young finalist campaign in 2018.

That’s why it’s such a welcome development to see Nola succeeding on the road this season. He is consistently good at home, even in his down years. When he also thrives on the road, he’s an All-Star.

After his dominant performance last night against the Atlanta Braves, Nola now has a lower ERA in away games than home games this season. The other numbers are equally impressive.

2022 Nola home splits: 3.77 ERA, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, .619 OPS against
2022 Nola away splits: 3.38 ERA, 5 starts, 32.0 IP, .674 OPS against

Better yet, the underlying numbers suggest Nola’s performance on the road is sustainable.

2022 Nola home splits: 4.22 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, .175 BABIP, 78.3% LOB
2022 Nola away splits: 2.61 FIP, 2.52 xFIP, .337 BABIP, 73.2% LOB

His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in away games is quite a bit higher than his career average, which indicates he might actually allow fewer hits in future road starts.

Perhaps the most promising sign for Nola is his incredible 9.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road. That K/BB is so good it would be almost impossible to maintain going forward, but that’s okay. What matters is not the exact K/BB, but the fact that Nola is maximizing strikeouts and minimizing walks, something he has struggled with on the road throughout his career.

Limiting baserunners and balls in play is a great recipe for success, and that’s what Nola has done so far this year – in home games and away games.

At this point in the season, one great start (like Nola’s performance last night in Atlanta) can heavily influence the numbers. That's why it would be unwise to draw too many conclusions from Nola’s home and away splits after just 10 outings.

However, that’s not to say last night was a complete outlier. Of Nola’s two best starts this year by game score, one was at home and one was on the road. Of his four best starts, two were at home and two were on the road. Of his six best starts, three were at home and three were on the road. And so on, and so on.

In other words, Nola’s away stats are not being skewed by his ace-like performance last night. He really has been equally impressive at home and on the road all season.

Whether or not he can keep that up? It’s too soon to say. But the results to this point are promising, and if Nola can continue to pitch like this away from Citizens Bank Park, there’s nothing stopping him from being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

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Published May 27, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.