The Phillies Starting Rotation Has Been Elite

Heading into the season, the Philadelphia Phillies offense was the talk of the town. So far, however, the starting pitchers have been the real stars.

Leo Morgenstern | Jun 4, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

When the Philadelphia Phillies signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in quick succession this March, the entire sport took notice. The Phillies were putting together a powerful offense to lead them to their first postseason berth in over a decade.

Through the first two months of the season, however, the offense has not quite lived up to those expectations. The Phillies rank seventh in the NL in runs scored and sixth in OPS. Their collective 101 wRC+ suggests they have hit about 1% better than league average. That's not disastrous by any means, but it certainly isn't the "ball go boom" kind of offense fans were hoping for.

Instead, Philadelphia's biggest strength has been starting pitching.

Zack Wheeler just won NL Pitcher of the Month for May. Aaron Nola has looked much more like his old self. Zach Eflin seems to have made a full recovery from his knee surgery. Kyle Gibson has been every bit the reliable veteran presence the Phillies need him to be. Even Ranger Suárez, while not nearly as dominant as he was last season, has been a competent number five starter at the back of the rotation.

Castellanos, Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto may have received all the publicity heading into the season, but so far Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Gibson, and Suárez have been the most dominant fivesome on the team.

In fact, the starting pitching was always going to be just as important as the offense this season, but with the excitement surrounding the "beefy boys", the strong rotation was overlooked.

In 2021, Phillies starters ranked top five in the National League in almost every statistical category, including strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, innings pitched, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, DRA, hard hit rate, barrel rate, shutouts, and complete games (just to name a few).

In 2022, Philadelphia has been running back that same rotation, except Vince Velasquez, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, and Spencer Howard have all been removed from the equation. Those four combined to start more than a quarter of Philadelphia's games last season, and all four were ineffective to say the least.

To put it another way, the Phillies brought back the five best pitchers from an already excellent starting rotation while trimming the excess fat. That's exactly what a good baseball team should do.

Zach Eflin dealing on Friday night against the New York Mets. — Zach Eflin dealing on Friday night against the New York Mets / © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

So far, the results have been good. Very good.

Phillies starters rank third in the majors in FIP and FanGraphs WAR, while they are fifth in xFIP and SIERA. They lead the National League in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and they have the lowest hard hit rate in all of baseball. The starting rotation has been even better than it was last year in almost every way.

The only major statistic in which Philadelphia starters do not rank highly is ERA, which was the case in 2021 as well. But considering the state of the Phillies defense, a higher ERA is not an indictment of the starting staff.

Moreover, their ERA-, which is adjusted to account for the ballparks they pitched in, ranks fifth in the National League and is seven percent better than league average. That means Phillies starters have still been very good at preventing runs despite pitching in front of a terrible defense and playing in more hitter-friendly stadiums.

In other words, even in the one area in which they haven't been elite, Philadelphia's starting rotation has still been significantly better than average.

Aaron Nola is having much more success thus far in 2022. — Aaron Nola is having much more success thus far in 2022 / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The starting pitchers are doing everything they can to prevent runs and keep the games close. In order for that to translate into victories, however, the offense needs to do their part too. Philadelphia has an elite starting rotation, and now they need an elite lineup to go along with it.

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Published Jun 4, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.