The Philadelphia Phillies Won the Kyle Gibson Trade

Over a full year later, it's safe to deem the Philadelphia Phillies the victors of the Kyle Gibson trade.

On July 30, 2021, the Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers agreed on a deal that sent right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson to the Phillies, with multiple prospects being exchanged between the two teams.

Gibson, who was in the midst of a career season at 33-years-old, had posted a 2.89 ERA across 19 starts with Texas, and made the first All-Star appearance of his career not two weeks prior.

The return? Highly regarded but mightily struggling pitching prospect Spencer Howard, who had thrown just 28.1 innings of 5.72 ERA ball for the Phillies that far into the season. Howard was viewed as a project, but one that the Phillies didn't have the time to figure out, as their competitive window was drawing nearer with every day that passed.

So Howard, alongside pitching prospects Kevin Gowdy and Josh Gessner shipped off to Texas, while the trio of Gibson, closer Ian Kennedy, and prospect Hans Crouse made their way back to Philadelphia.

Spencer Howard toes the rubber for the Texas Rangers in an April 10 game versus the Blue Jays. He would go on to allow four home runs in three innings of work

As things currently stand, the Rangers' end of this deal looks bleak. Kevin Gowdy, the Phillies second-round pick in 2016, has transferred to a full-time bullpen role with Texas. In 25 appearances this season, the right-hander has recorded a 9.28 ERA, walking 24 batters across 32 frames, striking out only 23. It's been a real struggle to stay healthy for the 24-year-old. 

Josh Gessner on the other hand has struggled through Single-A ball, posting a 5.11 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP in 37 frames.

But what about Spencer Howard, the crown jewel of the trade on the Rangers' side?

The now 26-year-old has been underwhelming to say the least. In the 59 innings Howard has thrown at the MLB level for the Rangers, he has allowed 54 runs with a whopping 8.24 ERA. He's struck out a combined 53 batters, and has allowed an alarming 11.9 hits-per-nine rate. Howard has been, put plainly, quite bad.

To his credit however, The Phillies second round draft pick from 2017 has managed a decent Triple-A season in 2022. Thus, there may be hope yet for Rangers fans that he somehow manages to figure things out.

So, while the jury is somewhat still out on this gaggle of players, the deal looks less-than promising over a full year later.

But how did the Phillies do? 

Kyle Gibson hurls a pitch in an outing versus the Miami Marlins / © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

At 36-years-old, Ian Kennedy's time with Philadelphia would prove relatively forgettable. The Phillies had once again assembled a rag-tag, closer-less bullpen, in which the veteran right-hander went on to usurp the ninth inning role. Kennedy would proceed to record 10 saves alongside a 4.13 ERA, and headed to free agency following the 2021 season.

Hans Crouse, the prospect the Phillies acquired from the Rangers, has struggled to stay healthy within the Phillies organization. He made the jump from Double-A to the majors for two spot starts during the 2021 season, but fell flat, struggling through seven innings, walking seven batters, and striking out just two opponents. He was clearly overmatched.

Unfortunately, following the 2021 season, Crouse stumbled through the Arizona Fall League and began the 2022 in dull fashion, leading to a duo of injury stints that have kept him out of action for the entire 2022 season.

That leaves one player, the headliner of the trade both then and now:

Kyle Gibson has been rock solid for the Phillies. In fact, he's been precisely what the team needed over this last season-and-a-half.

His second half of 2021 was marred by the Phillies god-awful infield defense, but in 2022 Gibson has been one of the better back-rotation starting pitchers in all of baseball.

Pitcher	ERA	FIP	fWAR
Kyle Gibson	4.08	4.09	1.8
Robbie Ray	3.58	3.93	1.9
Charlie Morton	4.10	3.97	1.7
Jon Gray	3.83	3.49	1.8

The above table references three pitchers whom are having similar seasons to that of Kyle Gibson, but are each armed with one glaring difference:

The Seattle Mariners signed Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract this past offseason. The Texas Rangers replaced Kyle Gibson with Jon Gray, who they signed to a four-year, $56 million contract this past offseason. The Atlanta Braves owe Charlie Morton a whopping $20 million this season alone.

Kyle Gibson carries a Luxury Tax Salary of just $9.3 million in 2022. That's it.

Instead of overspending on the starting pitching market this past offseason, the Phillies looked ahead, saw a player who they valued at a price they were comfortable with, and pulled the trigger.

Over a full year later, that player has become a mainstay in one of baseball's better rotations, and could pitch meaningful innings for them in a postseason situation.

In the end, it feels relatively safe to come to a verdict here: the Philadelphia Phillies handily won the Kyle Gibson trade.

With Kevin Gowdy nearing minor league free agency, Josh Gessner showing little ceiling, and Spencer Howard proving unable to make the major league leap time and time again, the Rangers appear to be coming away with very little here.

Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson has made a major impact in helping the Phillies to their first potential playoff berth in over a decade, while Hans Crouse remains a question mark. 

Perhaps something changes in the next few years. Maybe Howard bounces back in some major way, or thrives when shifted to a bullpen role. But, with Kyle Gibson headed to the open market this coming winter, it feels relatively safe to say that this will go down as one of the Phillies' better trades of the last few years.

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