Predicting Dave Dombrowski's First Big Move of the Offseason

In each of his first two offseasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Dave Dombrowski made a prominent bullpen acquisition in December.

Leo Morgenstern | Nov 26, 2022

Predicting Dave Dombrowski's First Big Move of the Offseason /

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It's been a slow offseason so far for the Philadelphia Phillies. To be fair, it's been an uneventful few weeks for most teams, but after the Phillies went on such an exciting postseason run, the slow news days have felt particularly empty.

If history is any indication, however, things might get going when the calendar flips to December. In each of his first two offseasons with the Phillies, Dave Dombrowski made his first noteworthy move in the twelfth month of the year. And the similarities don't stop there.

On Dec. 29, 2020, Dombrowski made his first trade as president of baseball operations. He completed a three-way deal with the Dodgers and the Rays to add José Alvarado to the Phillies bullpen.

The following winter, Dombrowski's first major move was another bullpen acquisition. On Dec. 1, just before the lockout began, he came to terms with reliever Corey Knebel on a one-year deal.

Both pitchers earned consideration to be Philadelphia's new closer the spring after they joined the team. There were rumors Alvarado could win the closing job in spring training 2021, and Knebel was penciled in as the closer heading into spring 2022.

Dombrowski's first big move in each of the past two off-seasons was the acquisition of a back-end reliever. It's not a pattern quite yet ("twice a coincidence, three times a pattern" as the old saying goes), but it's worth some thought nonetheless. Could Dombrowski make it three in a row and sign a possible closer as his first major move of the 2023 offseason?

Philadelphia Phillies Reliever José Alvarado / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies have three areas of need this winter: shortstop, starting pitching, and the bullpen.

The major signing everyone is waiting for – a new superstar shortstop – probably won't happen anytime soon. As is often the case these days, Dombrowski has shown a tendency to bide his time with big-fish free agents.

He waited until late January to re-sign J.T. Realmuto, and it took him until late February to sign J.D. Martinez with the Boston Red Sox. The lockout complicated things last offseason, but even so, the transaction freeze was over for nearly two weeks before Nick Castellanos became a Phillie.

Dombrowski's pursuit of a new starting pitcher is closely tied to his search for a shortstop. However much room he has left in the budget will determine which of the available free agent starters he signs. If the market for starting pitching starts to heat up, Dombrowski could accelerate his timeline, but for now, he's in no rush.

As for the bullpen, there are plenty of upgrades out there, but not that many back-end studs. Edwin Díaz and Rafael Montero are already off the board, leaving only a few potential closers available to sign. If Dombrowski has anyone particular in mind, he'd be smart to get a move on.

As lifeless as the offseason feels right now, things will eventually pick up. The Phillies will eventually make a move – several, in fact. And while no one except for Dave Dombrowski himself can tell you what that move is going to be, don't be surprised if Philadelphia has a shiny new toy in the bullpen just in time for the holidays.

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Published Nov 26, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.