Predicting the NL East Following Historic Spending Spree

We take a crack at predicting how the NL East will shake out in 2022.

© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Since the end of the 2022 season, nearly $2 billion has been spent on MLB free agents. Much of that has occurred in what looks to be a hyper-competitive NL East. While 2021 was projected to be a breakout year for both the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, both clubs floundered in September and fell short of the 88-win Atlanta Braves.

The 2022 season seems like it could be a similar situation. The Braves have a hearty young core while the Mets and their owner, Steve Cohen, have made some major splashes in free agency. The Phillies still have about $30 million left to spend before the luxury tax and even the Miami Marlins could be competitive with their rotation of blossoming stars. Come this time next year, the NL East final standings could look something like this…

New York Mets: 89-73

Opening Day Lineup:

Brandon Nimmo, RF

Starling Marte, CF

Francisco Lindor, SS

Pete Alonso, 1B

Eduardo Escobar, 3B

Mark Canha, LF

James McCann, C

Jeff McNeil, 2B

Jacob deGrom, SP

Seeing as the Mets have already spent over $250 million this offseason they are currently by far the most complete team. They’ve upgraded in center field, third base, left field and most importantly at pitcher, pairing future Hall of Famer Jacob deGrom with future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer.

The Mets’ depth is solid too, with players like Robinson Cano, Dominic Smith and defensive wiz Luis Guillorme on the bench. Yet, both the back-end of the Mets rotation and the bullpen are still somewhat suspect. Injuries and inconsistency plague players like Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro.

However, with Cohen, the richest and perhaps most unpredictable owner in baseball at the helm, none can be too certain in which direction the Mets will go. Looking at Cohen’s amassed fortune it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if the Mets addressed those issues after the lockout ends.

Philadelphia Phillies: 84-78

Opening Day Lineup:

Jean Segura, 2B

J.T. Realmuto, C

Bryce Harper, RF

Rhys Hoskins, 1B

Alec Bohm, 3B

Matt Vierling, CF

Didi Gregorius, SS

Johan Camargo, LF

Zack Wheeler, SP

At the moment, the Phillies seem an incomplete team. For the past three seasons, majority owner John Middleton has spent almost all the way up to the luxury tax, yet never exceeded it. This year, the same can likely be expected. Thus the Phillies probably have another $30 million to spend this winter.

A large chunk of that will likely go to left fielder Kyle Schwarber, while some will shore up the bullpen or possibly bring in a new shortstop. The top of the Phillies lineup seems competent, though the bullpen still needs work.

At the very least the Phillies rotation seems set in stone as Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson all made regular starts in 2021.

Miami Marlins: 84-78

Opening Day Lineup:

Joey Wendle, SS

Jazz Chisholm, 2B

Avisail Garcia, RF

Jesus Aguilar, 1B

Jesus Sanchez, LF

Bryan De La Cruz, CF

Jacob Stallings, C

Miguel Rojas, SS

Sandy Alcantara, SP

Ever since Kim Ng took the helm in 2020, it seems the Marlins have had more and more direction. This winter, they’ve traded for Gold Glove winner Jacob Stallings from the Pirates, acquired Joey Wendle from the Rays and signed Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53 million deal.

Miami is moving in the right direction, but with such a young core they might not be ready to compete just yet. Yet, they do have an intimidating pitching staff.

Headed by newly-extended Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers, the rotation is rounded out by Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo and Zach Thompson. Their average age in 2022 will be just 25.6. The Marlins ability to pull effective relievers out of a hat certainly hasn't harmed them either.

The 2022 Marlins could look something like the 2018 Phillies, a young upstart team out of the gate, light hitting and hard pitching, but unable to keep up in the dog days at the end of the season.

Atlanta Braves: 82–80

Opening Day Lineup:

Ozzie Albies, 2B

Dansby Swanson, SS

Adam Duvall, RF

Austin Riley, 3B

Travis D’Arnaud, C

Orlando Arcia, 1B

Guillermo Heredia, LF

Christian Pache, CF

Max Fried, SP

The Braves have been severely weakened by free agency this offseason. Thus far they’ve only signed Manny Pina and Kirby Yates to major league deals, while losing Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Joc Pederson, Drew Smyly, Chris Martin and Steven Vogt.

While the Braves were able to sneak into the postseason with an easy division in 2021 and capture a World Series by getting hot at the right time, they've yet to make any impact moves to field a competitive roster in 2022. Rumors have circulated that even Braves hero Freeman may not return.

At the very least, the Braves bullpen is still somewhat intact and the rotation is serviceable, anchored by Fried and followed by Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa and possibly a return from Mike Soroka.

With very little depth and starting the year with an injured Ronald Acuna Jr., the Braves seem like an 82-win team. That could very easily change though should the Braves make any moves once the lockout ends, they certainly have the capital to do so.

Washington Nationals: 62-100

Opening Day Lineup:

Cesar Hernandez, 2B

Lane Thomas, CF

Juan Soto, RF

Josh Bell, 1B

Luis Garcia, SS

Alcides Escobar, 3B

Yadiel Hernandez, C

Steven Strasburg, SP

Though the Nationals won the World Series just three years ago, it already seems like a lifetime. Since then, they've lost just about every key player but Juan Soto, Steven Strasburg, and the bloated contract of Pat Corbin.

Even since last year when they only won 65 games, they've shed Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Starlin Castro, Josh Harrison, and Brad Hand.

While some of the Nationals' 2021 struggles could have been considered bad luck, they underperformed their run differential, it's difficult to see how they could get any better. The most recognizable names out of the bullpen currently are Kyle Finnegan, Patrick Murphy, Will Harris, and Austin Voth, not exactly encouraging.

If Steven Strasburg returns to form and Juan Soto continues his run of dominance, it could be theoretically possible for the Nationals to see .500 baseball with a few breakout seasons, but their window of contention has closed.

More From SI's Inside The Phillies:

• How The Pre-Lockout Spending Spree Could Impact Negotiations
• Grading the Phillies' Transactions Prior to the Lockout
• 5 Things That Must Happen for the Phillies in 2022

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