What If Suárez is Still Just a Reliever?

Through five starts, is this the Ranger Suárez the Philadelphia Phillies are going to get all season?

© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

As Ranger Suárez threw just his 97th pitch of the afternoon on Sept. 25, 2021, he tossed the first complete game of his career, a "Maddux" against the Pittsburgh Pirates. His ERA on the season fell to an impressive 1.45 in 99 innings pitched.

The Phillies had won the game 3-0, and Philadelphia personnel was confident that they had successfully converted the Venezuelan reliever to a starter, solidifying their 2022 rotation in the process.

The rotation consisting of Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson, was ranked highly amongst most baseball outlets coming into the season. FanGraphs went so far as to rank them third in all of MLB in their pre-season starting rotation power rankings.

In April, the highly-touted Phillies' rotation did not perform up to expectations. However, Wheeler got a late start in spring training due to a setback in his workload, Eflin was returning from a season-ending injury in 2021, and Suarez was behind after arriving late to camp as well. It wasn't time to panic just yet.

But as the calendar flips to May, and the Phillies' fall farther behind in the National League East standings, panic mode has begun to settle in—especially regarding the southpaw Suárez. 

In five starts this season, Suárez has pitched to a 4.63 ERA, 5.30 FIP and 5.01 xERA. He's also walking more and striking out fewer batters than last season, a 2.8 BB/9 has increased to 3.9, while a 9.1 K/9 has decreased to 5.8. Additionally, he's already tied his 2021 total for home runs allowed in 2022 with four.

According to Baseball Savant, Suárez is struggling to miss bats, as he ranks in the 9th percentile in Whiff% and has dropped to the 11th percentile in K% as well. Meanwhile, the xBA on his sinker, which he throws most often, is .285, and on his change-up, .290. 

Suárez's poor start begs the question: have the Phillies put too much faith in him following his improbable 2021? After all, the 26-year-old's stellar numbers were inflated by his bout in the bullpen during the first-half of the season, in which he posted a 1.12 ERA in 40.1 innings.

If this is the case, the Phillies have a real problem on their hands moving forward. Suárez could still turn things around and be what the Phillies need him to be, but with Eflin continuing to underperform, Nola being unpredictable, Wheeler being unable to replicate his Cy Young runner-up season, and the organizational pitching depth being pretty much nonexistent, they need to figure it out fast. 

Philadelphia may have to spin a trade, and they might not be able to wait until the deadline in August.

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