Should the Phillies be Worried About Connor Brogdon?

One of the Philadelphia Phillies' most important arms of 2021 is off to a tepid and concerning start in early spring.

Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

With a live arm and beyond-his-years composure on the mound, Connor Brogdon served as one of the Philadelphia Phillies' premiere bullpen pieces during the 2021 regular season.

Brogdon was exceptional in 2021, turning in a 3.43 ERA (2.96 xERA) across 57.2 innings, alongside 50 strikeouts and 1.0 rWAR. His peripherals were even better—especially if you exclude a single blowup outing versus the San Francisco Giants, in which he was hung out to dry for six earned runs across two-thirds of an inning.

Subtracting that meltdown of an appearance knocks his season ERA down to a spectacular 2.53—which would have ranked 27th among MLB relief pitchers (min. 50 innings) just above White Sox closer Liam Hendriks.

By all accounts, Connor was integral to the Phils' 2021 bullpen—but thus far, a completely different Brogdon has shown up to camp in 2022.

Brogdon's fastball, which averaged 96.1 miles-per-hour last season, is down a full three ticks, sitting 92-93 through his first few spring appearances.

What's more, his typically well-commanded secondaries—including his go-to changeup and strike-stealing cutter—haven't hit their spots as they usually do.

So, what's going on? Is it something mechanical? Is he hurt? Or are we jumping the gun here, and it's simply a factor of a shortened spring?

The answer, at least for the moment, is unclear. However, one can deduce by browsing around the league that Brogdon is not the only pitcher experiencing this particular issue.

Detroit Tigers reliever Michael Fulmer, who the Phillies faced on Wednesday, saw a major bounceback in 2021. His fastball caught fire, jumping up a whole 2.3 miles-per-hour from his 2020 average velocity—even touching triple-digits at times. He went on to toss 69.2 innings for the Tigers last year, notching 14 saves.

However, on Wednesday, Fulmer topped out at just 92 miles-per-hour flat on the stadium gun, which I'm sure is popping eyes around the Tigers' organization.

Conversely, there are some pitchers out there who are registering new highs this spring. Pirates' starting pitcher Mitch Keller's fastball velocity is higher and more consistent than ever this spring, and it's certainly showing in his results. He has yet to allow a run across 8.2 innings.

We knew after the MLB lockout that the start to the 2022 season was due to be a strange one, and that is certainly proving to be the case here. Each individual pitcher seems to be at a different place in regards to ramp-up time, making it quite difficult to discern what results you can trust, and which you should disregard—such is the nature of Spring Training.

Perhaps there are some guys around the league who just need more time to build up? Maybe the other two aforementioned pitchers aren't quite ready to go full-tilt just yet, while Keller (who has a lot to prove) is a man on a mission.

Regardless of the reason, with the start of the season just over a week away, Brogdon, and others like him, are going to have to figure it out quickly.

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