Starting Pitching Matchups Give the Phillies a Big Leg Up Against the Cardinals

With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez ready to go, the Phillies are particularly well-suited to win a three-game postseason series.

Leo Morgenstern | Oct 6, 2022

Starting Pitching Matchups Give the Phillies a Big Leg Up Against the Cardinals /

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will begin their first postseason series since 2011 on Friday, Oct. 7. They will take on the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game set at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals' home field. And while the Phillies are technically the underdogs—they are the bottom seed in the National League—they could prove to be a worthy opponent for the NL Central champions.

St. Louis has been the better team this season. It's hard to deny that. They are currently six games ahead of Philadelphia in the standings. But the Phillies are uniquely well-suited to win a three-game series because of the three pitchers atop their starting rotation.

Manager Rob Thomson announced his starting pitching plan for the Wild Card series. 2021 Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler will start Game 1, homegrown ace Aaron Nola will start Game 2, and last year's breakout star Ranger Suárez will start Game 3 (if necessary). It's a fearsome threesome that can hold their own against any team in baseball.

The Cardinals have put together a solid rotation this year, especially after trading for José Quintana and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline. However, they don't quite have the star power of the Phillies' rotation. Manager Oli Marmol announced his postseason rotation on Thursday; José Quintana will go in Game 1, Miles Mikolas in Game 2, with Game 3 yet to be determined.

Just a month ago, longtime Cardinals' ace Adam Wainwright would have been a given to start one of the Wild Card games, but he has struggled tremendously since the start of September, allowing four or more runs in five of his last six starts. His ERA ballooned from 3.09 to 3.71.

Meanwhile, Quintana and Mikolas have both been excellent since the beginning of September. Quintana has allowed just three earned runs in six starts (good for a 0.81 ERA), while Mikolas is averaging nearly seven innings per start with a 2.38 ERA.

Montgomery has not looked quite as sharp as he did in August, but he has gotten the job done for St. Louis, posting a 4.36 ERA in six starts. That's not exactly inspiring, but it's better than Wainwright's 7.22 ERA in the same time period. Working in Wainwright's favor, however, is the platoon advantage. Montgomery is a southpaw, and Philadelphia's lineup has feasted on left-handed pitching this year. The Cardinals might want to avoid having two lefties face the Phillies in the same short series (Quintana is also left-handed).

Ultimately, whoever ends up starting for the St. Louis, Philadelphia will have the pitching advantage in all three games. Quintana and Mikolas might have some great numbers lately, but so do Wheeler (0.60 ERA since Sept. 1) and Nola (2.36 ERA since Sept. 1.) Both of the Phillies' aces also have more impressive track records.

As for Game 3, whether it is Montgomery or Wainwright who takes the ball for St. Louis, Ranger Suárez has been the better pitcher this year. Ignoring Tuesday night's meaningless hiccup against the Astros, Suárez has proven himself to be a true no. 3 starter in 2022.

Unfortunately for Suárez, the Cardinals—like the Phillies—have performed very well against left-handers this year, thanks in large part to a man named Albert Pujols. If Wainwright gets the ball and returns to form and if St. Louis stack their lineup with right-handed power bats, this matchup could swing in the Cardinals' favor.

Thankfully for Philadelphia, that's a lot of "ifs." At the end of the day, they will have the better starting pitcher on the mound in all three games of the series, and that's what matters most. The St. Louis Cardinals won't be an easy opponent, but with Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez pitching back-to-back-to-back, the Phillies are going to put up a fight.

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Published Oct 6, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.