What if the Phillies Season Really is Doomed?

It's been a somewhat embarrassing start to the season for the Philadelphia Phillies given their high expectations. But what if this is the incarnation we'll see for the rest of the season?

Ben Silver | Apr 18, 2022

It's built into the DNA of Philadelphia sports fans to expect the worst; it's just something the city is conditioned for.

If you speak to enough people over the age of 60 on any given day at Citizens Bank Park, you'll hear them grumble about starting Jim Bunning and Chris Short on no rest and "The Phold" of 1964.

People still speak of Joe Carter in hushed tones and Donovan McNabb vomiting in the huddle during Super Bowl 38. Today, you don't have to look very far to find people who are giving up on the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies after just 10 games.

It's plastered all over Facebook, Twitter, and the conversations of older relatives at Seders and Easter dinners.

Most of the time our worst fears are unfounded. But this time, what if they're right? What if the Phillies have shown their true colors in just 10 games after a shortened spring training in 2022 and this really is a 74-win team?

If we are living in a multiverse, in one universe out there, there must be a version of the Phillies that completely falls apart.

Instead of allowing you to spend countless hours pondering the demise of this ball club, I've concocted the absolute worst case scenario where everything and anything that could possibly go wrong for the Phillies, goes wrong.

Through 10 games we have seen the absolute worst from the Phillies biggest question mark going into the 2022 season, Aaron Nola. Through two starts, he's put up an ERA of 6.75 and a FIP to back it up.

Forgetting his first six innings of dominant pitching on Opening Day, Nola has been abhorrent, but what if that's what he is now? He's regressed almost linearly since 2018, so wouldn't this be the natural next step?

If these 10 games have proven anything, it's that Nola is now washed up and will continue to pitch with an ERA above 6.00 the rest of the year.

The other half of the Phillies one-two punch is Zack Wheeler, who's fastball velocity dropped as low as 91 mph in his last start on Sunday. He's clearly suffering from a heavy workload in 2021 and a shoulder issue that halted his build-up in the off-season.

If the early returns from his first two starts are any indication, it will take Wheeler a long time to return to form. Even if he can build back up at age-32, Wheeler might end up injured for the better part of the year, to be replaced by pitchers like Bailey Falter and Hans Crouse, neither of whom seem ready to start at the Major League level.

Meanwhile, the back half of the Phillies rotation features three players who rely heavily on groundball outs. The Phillies have a notoriously poor infield defense which will sink their ERA collectively.

Ranger Suárez has never pitched more than 100 innings in a season, he'll likely be destined for the injured list at some point this year due to an increased workload and see major regression from his 2021 numbers.

Zach Eflin, like Wheeler, has also been dealing with a slow start due to his offseason knee surgery. In his entire career, he's never once stayed healthy for an entire season, and his current recovery from surgery looks like it could be more intense than what he's undergone in previous years.

Even if Eflin stays healthy, he might not be entirely effective.

Thus far in the young season, the Phillies have MLB's eighth-worst bullpen. That's about where they were projected pre-season, but we all know what the Phillies bullpen is truly capable of.

Harboring such volatile relievers as Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, and Corey Knebel, their back-end trio could all continue the path of regression they've been following for several years now, even if the early returns so far haven't been catastrophic.

While the Phillies lineup seems to have been dormant thus far, they're still the National League's sixth best offense according to OPS. That won't be enough though to offset the Phillies' horrendous pitching.

Bryce Harper might be trending towards a down-year after his 2021 MVP campaign. It's impossible that he could stay great forever.

New signing Nick Castellanos looks to be one of the only consistent forces in the Phillies lineup, but fellow free agent signee Kyle Schwarber is already washed up.

Batting just .139 through 40 plate appearances, it's clear he's lost his power stroke and has been having trouble recognizing balls and strikes. His strikeout rate is 32.5% and his walk rate is a career-low 10%. If those trends continue through the season, the Phillies are in deep trouble without a clear leadoff hitter.

Top prospect Bryson Stott has also struggled since Opening Day, slashing just .154/.185/.192. Though his defense has been stellar, it won't be enough to keep him in the majors if his bat continues to struggle.

After a hot start, Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura have both cooled noticeably. They'll likely regress to their career numbers, around .750 OPS for Segura, and an .850 OPS for an injury-riddled for Hoskins.

Realmuto has been a constant behind the plate for the Phillies for four years now. He can probably be relied upon to provide at least above-average offense for a catcher, but an OPS of .763 won't cut it when the rest of the team cannot hit.

The other two Phillies question marks have been Didi Gregorius at shortstop, who's proven again that he plays below-average defense and still can't hit, and Matt Vierling at center field, who has just three hits the entire season on mediocre defense.

Perhaps when Mickey Moniak returns he could win the center field job, but we've seen who the Phillies prefer in 2021, and that man is the embodiment of center field mediocrity, Odúbel Herrera.

Lastly, Alec Bohm has shown himself to be a competent Major League hitter in 17 plate appearances, his OPS is 1.406, but he's also demonstrated a true inability to play third base. Since first base is covered by Hoskins and DH is locked down by the Schwarber/Castellanos pairing, there's little chance Bohm will see playing time this season outside of a trade.

The picture painted seems to be a team capable of winning 70-75 games. There are still a few players on the club incapable of providing below-average play, but in this universe, when every question mark comes back a negative, the Phillies don't have enough proven players to out-hit and out-pitch their inefficiencies.

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Published Apr 18, 2022

BEN SILVER

Ben Silver is deputy editor for Inside the Phillies. A graduate of Boston University, Ben formerly covered the Phillies for PhilliesNation.com. Follow him on Twittter @BenHSilver.