History Doesn't Favor Pirates' Paul Skenes Rookie of Year Odds
Things may very well come down to the wire for Paul Skenes in his bid to win the National League Rookie of the Year.
Skenes has been nothing short of impressive this season, racking up a 10-3 record with a 2.07 ERA over 21 starts and has struck out 158 batters across 126 innings pitched and started the All-Star game. Had Skenes been in the big leagues since the beginning of the season, one could argue he'd be a shoo-in to win Rookie of the Year and have a legit shot to win the National Year Cy Young award.
Unfortunately for Skenes, he didn't make his big league debut until May 11 and he's contending for the award with San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill, who is having one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory and is doing it on a playoff team.
Merrill has played in 149 games and is batting .292 with 24 home runs and 88 RBIs. He's also played like a seasoned veteran and is tied for first in the NL with eight assists.
Comparing a pitcher's impact on a game to an everyday position player can prove difficult given the disparity in playing time. Wins above replacement is the closest thing that can compare a position player's impact to a pitcher's, and that stat favors Skenes, who has a 5.5 WAR. Merrill's WAR is 4.1.
When the Rookie of the Year race has come down to a position player and a starting pitcher, history has rarely favored the one toeing the slab every fifth day. Michael Fulmer, who was a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, was the last one to earn the award in 2016. Fulmer was 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA in 159 innings pitched.
Fulmer won the award over New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who only played in 53 games. The Tigers right-hander had a 5.4 WAR, while Sanchez's was a 3.0.
In the NL, Jacob deGrom was the last starting pitcher to earn the accolade in 2014 for the New York Mets. The hard-throwing right-hander was 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA across 140.1 innings. deGrom beat out Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton for the award and had a 3.5 WAR compared to a 2.5 for the speedy outfielder.
Last season, Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finished in second place to Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henerson in the American League and New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga was second to Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll. Carroll and Henderson each had a higher WAR in their respective races than Bibee and Senga.
In 2022, a similar situation arose when Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II beat out his teammate, starting pitcher Spencer Strider for the award. Harris II had a 5.2 WAR compared to a 3.8 for Strider.
If WAR ultimately becomes the deciding factor for voters, Skenes could be sitting pretty and have a shot to become the second player in franchise history to win the award. Former Pirates outfielder Jason Bay won the accolade in 2004.
Ultimately, though, Merrill's body of work and his ability to show up consistently for a Padres (88-66) team that's coasting their way into the playoffs is tough to overlook. Pittsburgh was essentially knocked out of the playoff race in August.
With one week left, Skenes is projected to make two starts. How the 2023 No. 1 overall pick fares against the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday and New York Yankees could sway voters in his favor. With a solid start against the Reds and a Yankees team that boasts one of the league's best offenses, that could swing the odds in Skenes' favor.
Regardless of how things shake out for Skenes, he's gone above and beyond the lofty expectations placed upon him since he was called up and has cemented himself as the Pirates' ace and cornerstone of their franchise for years to come.
