MLB Draft Lottery: Pirates Have Slim Odds For Top Pick

The Pittsburgh Pirates will need an upset to have to No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes (left) speaks at a press conference as Pirates general manager Ben Cherington (right) listens before the Pirates play the Cleveland Guardians at PNC Park. Skenes was the Pirates first-round pick and the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB first-year player draft.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes (left) speaks at a press conference as Pirates general manager Ben Cherington (right) listens before the Pirates play the Cleveland Guardians at PNC Park. Skenes was the Pirates first-round pick and the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB first-year player draft. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
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Will the Pittsburgh Pirates be the beneficiary of an upset in the MLB Draft Lottery?

That's what Pittsburgh will need if it's going to land the first overall pick for the second time in three years when the MLB Draft Lottery takes place on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET at the Winter Meetings in Dallas.

The Pirates have the sixth-best odds among the 16 teams eligible to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft at 5.31 percent. Pittsburgh trails the Colorado Rockies (22.45 percent), Miami Marlins (22.45), Los Angeles Angels (17.96), Washington Nationals (10.20) and Toronto Blue Jays (7.48).

Last year, the Cleveland Guardians had a 2.0 percent chance of winning the MLB Draft Lottery before pulling off the major upset. Cleveland went on to take Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State with the first pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

Pittsburgh had the eighth-best odds to get the first overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and ended up with the ninth pick and took shortstop Konnor Griffin out of Jackson Prep High School in Mississippi. Griffin is the Pirates' No. 2 ranked prospect and No. 50 in baseball by MLB Pipeline.

The Pirates won the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery in 2022 after being tied for the best odds with the Nationals. Pittsburgh hit the proverbial jackpot, as it took right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes out of LSU with the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

To say that pick has panned out thus far would be an understatement. Skenes won the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year and was a finalist for the Cy Young Award before finishing third. Skenes was just the sixth player in MLB history to finish in the top three for both awards and the first pitcher in Pirates history to win the NL Rookie of the Year.

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