Pirates' Paul Skenes No Longer Rookie of Year Favorite
PITTSBURGH -- Once the runaway favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, Pittsburgh Pirates star pitcher Paul Skenes has completely ceded his advantage in the race according to one betting platform.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists Skenes' odds of winning the award at +135, meaning he's considered an underdog and represents a plus-money wager. The Pirates ace entered the All-Star break as the frontrunner at -1100 and remained in that same position just a week ago at -170, though that sharp decline in his chances foreshadowed what was to come in the near future.
Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres is now the top candidate with odds that register at -175 amidst a banner second half of the season for both himself and the team.
Following his inclusion on the NL's roster at the Midsummer Classic in July alongside Skenes, the 21-year-old center fielder has hit .333/.357/.667 with six home runs, 23 RBIs and a 177 wRC+.
Over that same stretch, the Padres own an MLB-best 22-7 record and are comfortably in possession of a Wild Card spot. The club is also back in the running for the NL West crown, sitting four games back of the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
Merrill leads all rookie position players with 3.9 fWAR and 71 RBIs while being tied with the Baltimore Orioles' Colton Cowser for the most homers at 18. He is slashing .291/.322/.491 on the year.
The fact that the Pirates have gone 11-19 and fell out of postseason contention since the break certainly hasn't booned Skenes' prospects of winning Rookie of the Year, especially in contrast to what Merrill and the Padres have accomplished.
Still, just a year after Pittsburgh selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, Skenes has lived up to expectations and rapidly developed into one of the league's top starters. He has recorded the second-lowest ERA (2.30) of any pitcher who has thrown 90 innings and has become a strikeout artist with 11.11 K/9.
Skenes will have the chance to go out and rip the award from Merrill's clutches after it was reported that the Pirates do not plan to shut him down and have no innings limit set. For that to occur, however, he will need to recover from an uneven start to August (4.15 ERA) and work through some fatigue that has caused a dip in both his velocity and command.
Behind Skenes, the player with the next-highest odds to win is Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio at +4700, meaning it's all but a two-horse race at this point in the season. Skenes has his work cut out for him, but he shouldn't be discounted in his pursuit of the award.
