Potential Rotation Replacements for Pirates Star Pitcher
When Spring Training began last month, it was clear that the Pittsburgh Pirates' starting pitching rotation would be a major strength of the team. The rotation could be experiencing a major blow early in the season, as news broke this morning that right-handed pitcher Jared Jones is experiencing right elbow discomfort, and will be shut down for the rest of spring.
Jared Jones experienced elbow discomfort after his last bullpen, per Derek Shelton. He will miss his final scheduled Spring Training start
— Alex Stumpf (@AlexJStumpf) March 19, 2025
The injury comes with unfortunate timing, as Jones was slated to make his final spring training start on Wednesday afternoon. As a rookie in 2024, Jones was a key cog in the rotation, pitching to a 6-8 record, with a 4.14 ERA and 132 strikeouts over 121 2/3 innings. He was expected to enter the Opening Day series as the third starter behind Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller. He may still get that opportunity, but it seems unlikely.
The Pirates are still waiting for more information before making an official roster move. Manager Derek Shelton stressed that they don't know an official diagnosis yet and are looking for second opinions.
That type of language does not make it seem promising that we will see Jones in the first series of the season against the New York Yankees. With Opening Day now a week away, the Pirates will likely have to find a replacement in the rotation for Jones. Pitching depth is a strength organizationally and not just at the Major League level.
While not ideal to lose one of your top starters right before the season starts, there are some encouraging candidates who could potentially replace Jones. It is not a certainty that Jones will miss games, but it is a certainty that the rotation will eventually need spot starts, whether from injury or fatigue. Here are three pitchers that could be contenders to fill Jones' spot in the rotation.
Thomas Harrington, RHP
Thomas Harrington (@Pirates No. 3 prospect/MLB No. 79) continued his strong spring today:
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 18, 2025
3 2/3 IP
1 H
1 R
1 BB
3 K pic.twitter.com/ljWEQ7sNhc
Harrington is fresh on Pirates' fans minds, starting for Pittsburgh during their Spring Training game on Tuesday. The right-hander was drafted in the first round of the 2022 draft out of Campbell University, and has solidified himself as a top prospect in the organization. MLB.com recently ranked Harrington sixth amongst Pirates prospects, and 79th in all of MLB.
After starting 2024 on the IL with a rotator cuff strain, Harrington returned to dominate both Double-A and Triple-A hitters, posting a 2.61 ERA over 22 appearances, including his final eight at Triple-A Indianapolis. He possesses elite command of his pitches, and has a deep pitch mix that projects well against big league hitters. Harrington's changeup is effective as his swing-and-miss pitch, and occasionally acts more like a sinker at higher velocities. His fastball sits at 91-94 MPH, which makes the strong command of his pitches all the more important. FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen recently compared Harrington to Astros starting pitcher Jose Urquidy, a crafty -- and successful -- right-hander.
Harrington has survived several rounds of roster cuts thus far, and may be the best option to replace Jones. However, it remains to be seen if the PIrates are willing to burn his rookie eligibility this early in the season.
Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP
Another first round pick, the 2020 draftee has mostly pitched in relief during his professional career. This spring, however, the Pirates and Mlodzinski have been making a concerted effort to increase his pitchload and stamina. Mlodzinski has made two starts this spring, the most recent coming this past Saturday. He collected three strikeouts in three innings of work.
Mlodzinski has four pitches that he mainly uses: a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter and sweeper. He can dial his fastball up to 96 MPH. Notably, Baseball Savant has Mlodzinski's barrel percentage from the 2024 season in the 99th percentile of all MLB pitchers. Barrel percentage measures how often a hitter makes ideal contact with the ball. A "barrel" is a batted ball that meets specific exit velocity and launch angle criteria, which historically leads to high outcomes like extra-base hits or home runs. Most of this data came from relief appearances by Mlodzinski, but it still suggests that hitters struggle to make solid contact against him.
If Jones is not expected to miss an extended amount of time, then Mlodzinski may be the perfect option. Even if we don't see him in the opening series of the season, it's obvious that the Pirates are planning on Mlodzinski making more starts in 2025.
Braxton Ashcraft, RHP
A recent roster cut, the 26-year-old right-hander was optioned to the minor leagues on March 11th. However, should Jones actually miss extended time, it would not be surprising for the Pirates to take another look at Ashcraft.
Injuries have swallowed almost two full seasons of Ashcraft's professional career. Ashcraft endured significant setbacks in both 2021 and 2022, including undergoing Tommy John surgery, which has slightly slowed his progression. Still, his talent and production has never been in doubt. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-hander features a high-spin fastball that touches 98 MPH and a sharp slider in the high-80s, which serves as his primary strikeout weapon. He has also begun incorporating a changeup into his arsenal. Last season, Ashcraft pitched to a 2.84 ERA over a career high 73 IP. He struck out 77 and walked only 12 hitters.
A former standout high school football player, Ashcraft’s athleticism is evident in his delivery. Ranked No. 6 on MLB Pipeline’s list of Pirates prospects, he still projects as a future member of Pittsburgh's rotation. If Ashcraft were to earn an opportunity early this season, he may stick around the big league roster for good.
If Jones is placed on the Injured List, the Pirates have some solid options. And if he is not, then the team undoubtedly will still feel confident in their starting pitching depth.
Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.