Stephen Strasburg is Cautionary Tale for Pirates, Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes has taken the league by storm through the first 16 starts of his career.
The flamethrowing 21-year-old is 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA and has struck out 121 batters over 98 innings pitched. Skenes' hot start to his career has him in the thick of the National League Rookie of the Year race with San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill.
The last time a pitcher who was the No. 1 overall pick and made an immediate impact upon arriving in the big leagues was Stephen Strasberg with the Washington Nationals in 2010. Pittsburgh became part of history in Strasburg's first start, as it was on the wrong end of one of the most electrifying debuts in sports history when the former Nationals right-hander pitched seven innings, allowed two runs and struck out 14 batters on Jone 8, 2010.
It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows, though, throughout Strasburg's rookie season. He finished the year 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA and endured a rough three-start stretch in August, allowing 10 earned runs over 13.1 innings of work. His year ended early with him needing Tommy John surgery.
Including the minor leagues, Strasburg pitched 123.1 innings in his first full season as a pro. That came on the heels of him pitching 109 innings in his final season at San Diego State in 2009.
Strasburg eventually went on to have a great career despite only making five starts in his second season. He was also a World Series hero when the Nationals won it all in 2019.
Skenes has pitched 115.1 innings including the minor leagues this season. In 2023 at LSU, the Pirates' rookie right-hander pitched 122.2 innings.
There are also some potentially concerning signs bubbling to the surface over his last two starts. Skenes averaged less than 98 miles per hour on his fastball per Baseball Savant's metrics and in his last outing, he walked a career-high four batters.
By the time it was August in 2010, the Nationals were 13 games under .500 and well out of the playoff race and Strasburg's injury came after he surpassed his innings total from his final collegiate season. Skenes is approaching his innings total from his final year at LSU and at 59-67, the Pirates' playoff hopes have all but vanquished.
While Pittsburgh hasn't shown any indications it's going to completely shut Skenes down, The Athletic has reported that it plans to be cautious with its budding ace.
“The Pirates currently have no such plans, according to sources briefed on their thinking," The Athletic writes. "They have no set innings limit for Skenes. The only restriction they are considering, assuming Skenes stays healthy, is potentially shortening his outings. The Chicago White Sox are taking just that approach with left-hander Garrett Crochet, who is working as a starter for the first time in his professional career.”
If Skenes begins to struggle, shutting him down may become the Pirates' only option. Their best years are in 2025 and beyond, and if they're going to reach their ceiling, they need Skenes on the mound. A similar plan with Strasburg may have kept him healthy for his entire second season and could have helped turn Washington into a playoff contender sooner.
Losing Skenes for any extended period of time could be catastrophic for Pittsburgh, and Strasburg's rookie season is a solid blueprint for it to follow. Doing what's best to keep Skenes healthy for the long run is worth so much more than continuing to pitch him i his performance starts to dip while Pittsburgh is out of the playoff race.
Skenes is going to be part of the solution if the Pirates turn things around after this season, but he won't be able to do so if he's hurt from pitching in games that don't matter.
