Advanced Analytics Highlight Just How Dominant Texas Rangers Rotation Can Be

The Texas Rangers could have one of the most dominant starting staffs in the league based on their strong advanced metrics.

Sep 13, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom (48) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

As the Texas Rangers enter spring training camp, their success will largely rest on the shoulders of their talented starting pitching staff.

In an article for The Athletic, Eno Sarris took a look at the Rangers' projected group, noting that all their pitchers fall within the top 148 in metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+.

While pitchers are all taught balance throughout a repeatable delivery, metrics such as Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ consider a pitcher’s uniqueness.

Certain pitchers have a different arm slot or release points, while others have great extension – releasing the pitch closer to the plate.

Additionally, a few utilize a cross-body release point or successfully hide the ball from hitters.

The introduction of analytics to pitching has revolutionized the craft, incorporating factors like spin rate, maximum effort, measured movement and precise location.

Below is taking a look at how this group stacks up in their advanced metrics that Sarris laid out.

Jacob deGrom

Rank: 14, Stuff+115, Location+ 113, Pitching+ 130, Proj.IP 132, ppERA 2.98, ppK% 31.1%

deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the game when healthy. Based upon a projection of 170 innings pitched, he breaks the models. His projected 132 innings pitched may be generous, but he still garners a 130 pitching+ rating and a ridiculous 31.1% strikeout rate.

Known for his max effort delivery, his fastball averages over 99 mph. However, he hasn’t eclipsed 100 innings since he won the Cy Young in 2019.

In 2024, he made nine starts and logged 41 innings with a 2.41 ERA.

Fully healthy going into spring, de Grom has the pieces in place to make 30 possible starts.

Texas hopes he can, but the AL West hitters don't.

Nathan Eovaldi

Rank: 57, Stuff+100, Location+ 104, Pitching + 103, Proj.IP 141, ppERA 3.75, ppK% 23.1%

Eovaldi was a key signing by the Rangers’ president of baseball operations, Chris Young.

Since refining his approach to be more of a four-pitch pitcher instead of a high 90s flamethrower, Eovaldi has demonstrated the ability to eat innings and anchor the rotation.

He has pitched over 100 innings in four consecutive seasons. Last year, his fastball still averaged 95.6 mph and had a 26.8% whiff rate.

Eovaldi is a bit of a short-armer, hiding the ball which lets his fastball jump on hitters. He has a plus curveball with a good velocity change into the high 70s. What makes him difficult to face is his splitter, which has the same arm action and same arm slot to mimic the action of his fastball, making it exceptionally challenging for hitters.

Tyler Mahle

Rank: 136, Stuff+87, Location+ 107, Pitching + 90, Proj.IP 95, ppERA 4.33, ppK% 21.5%

Mahle is coming off an injury-plagued 2024, but is healthy as spring begins.

Although he doesn’t overwhelm with velocity, his 92-93 mph four-seam fastball seems more in the 95-96 mph range due to his extended-release point.

Mahle predominately uses his slider against right-handed hitters, but his out pitch is his splitter which plays against both sides of the plate.

If he remains healthy, he could serve as a reliable back-end starter or the swing guy for Texas.

Cody Bradford

Rank: 148, Stuff+87, Location+ 115, Pitching + 101, Proj.IP 89, ppERA 4.25, ppK% 19.6%

Bradford is an intriguing prospect coming into this spring. He had a solid end to the 2024 season, posting a 3.54 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 70 strikeouts over 71 innings in 14 games, 13 of which were starts.

Those numbers sound ideal for the backend of the rotation, especially one that has six pitchers in the mix like the Ranger’s staff currently has.

Standing at 6-foot-4, Bradford is a classic smooth lefty. Although, he doesn’t throw hard, he effectively limits walks. His four-seam fastball sits in the low 90s complimented by his plus changeup, which he turns over more to right-handed hitters increasing horizontal movement and his whiff rate.

While his lack of a strong third pitch may limit his role, his success as a starter suggests he deserves the chance.

Kumar Rocker

Rank: 76, Stuff+99, Location+ 104, Pitching + 102, Proj.IP 103, ppERA 3.36, ppK% 26.9%

Rocker is another pitcher with injury history but is healthy heading into spring training.

Expectations are high for this Vanderbilt product, who has been drafted twice in the top 10 of the MLB draft.

He is currently the Rangers’ No. 2 prospect and ranks 44th overall in MLB.

Rocker is a power pitcher who has a powerful frame and great extension. He boasts a powerful 95 mph four-seam fastball and rips a strong slider in the high eighties that has both vertical and horizontal break but could be sharper.

He effectively sinks his fastball against right-handed hitters to keep them off the plate, much in the line of Arizona Diamondbacks' starter Corbin Burnes.

Ideally, Rocker can secure one of the slots in the starting rotation.

Jack Leiter

Rank: 115, Stuff+99, Location+ 104, Pitching + 102, Proj.IP 103, ppERA 3.36, ppK% 26.9%

Leiter possesses the skill set of a No. 1 starter. He primarily relies on a three-pitch arsenal, featuring a fastball that consistently reaches 96-98 mph, an explosive, high-80s slider and a curveball in the low 80s that has more vertical break.

He mainly uses his slider against right-handed hitters but keeps left-handers honest with his curveball and occasional changeup.

Leiter employs an old-school drop-and-drive style, leveraging his athleticism for maximum spin and velocity.

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