AL Playoff Teams Nearly Set, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners After Last Spot

Five of the six American League playoff teams are just about settled, according to the odds.

If the odds hold true, the American League playoff roster is just about set with five of the six spots essentially spoken for.

What’s certain as of Monday is that three teams have clinched spots – Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays both have better than a 97% chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs.

That leaves one opening, likely the third Wild Card. The two clubs in the running also happen to open a three-game series Monday night, as the Houston Astros visit the Seattle Mariners with plenty on the line.

The Astros (85-71) currently have a half-game lead on Seattle (84-71) but that will change over the next three days. As of now, Houston has the better playoff odds – 60.1% to 45.1%. Neither has much of a statistical shot of winning the AL West, which the Rangers (87-68) lead by 2.5 and 3.0 games over the Astros and Mariners, respectively.

The Astros, in control of the West just a week ago, have just an 11.1% chance of finishing first. Seattle is a paltry 6.3%

Texas’ probability of claiming the division crown is 82.5%. The Rangers open a three-game series at the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night before finishing the regular season with four in Seattle beginning Thursday.

Texas hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016. The magic number for clinching the West is five.

“We have seven games left here, so we’re in a better position,” manager Bruce Bochy said.

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