'Danger Theory': How Rangers Plan to Produce Runs The Modern Way

Baseball lineups aren't built the way they used to be.

Chris Halicke | Mar 11, 2021

One way or another, the game of baseball is changing. For instance ...

"It's danger from Pitch One," Texas Rangers manager Chris Woodward said.

For some, the game is changing for the better. For many purists, baseball is moving further and further away from the game they love.

While we won't touch on rule changes, instant replay, defensive shifts, or three-out minimums, but it is interesting to see how the game has evolved from a strategic standpoint — specifically, how lineups are constructed.

And that's where Woodward's "danger'' theory comes in.

"You can't just ease a ball in there like you could in the past say, 'Okay, I'm just gonna get strike one on the first hitter,'' he said. "It might be 1-0. That's kind of the the attitude we want."

In general, the days of the traditional lead-off hitter, followed by a high-contact hitter in the two-hole, and your best RBI guys in the third and fourth slots, are gone. It isn't black-and-white, where the tradition is completely written off. There is still some merit to it.

However, as professional ballclubs dig deeper and deeper into analytics, they're finding different ways to construct lineups to give their teams the most optimized method to produce as many runs as possible.

Now, you're seeing traditional No. 3 hitters like Mookie Betts lead off for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anthony Rizzo, a traditional clean-up hitter, has led off for the Chicago Cubs.

"I think the way you construct a lineup now, I think you're just trying to create runs," Woodward said. "There was a lot of flaws in the traditional way, just having this set lineup. ... If you score first, if you punch the other team in the mouth first, you win a lot of games, and the percentages show that like it's a 70-percent clip in a lot of cases."

The bottom line: Big league teams want to get their best hitters to the plate as many times as possible.

The Rangers' lineup was never consistent in 2020. It took 26 games until manager Chris Woodward copied and pasted the same group of nine players.

More consistency is obviously something the Rangers want in 2021. However, they also want to optimize their own process to get back to producing runs at a higher clip. Chris Woodward is constantly talking with the analytics department and his coaching staff about how to best construct a batting order that can do damage.

The Rangers already have a growing list of candidates who can hit atop the order, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa — despite tradition — is getting consideration.

"When I look at Kiner, he can put guys back on their heels right away," Woodward said. "Whether that's on the first pitch or just being able to foul pitches off and see six or seven pitches. It's huge to have the opportunity to put ourselves with our best hitters coming up after that in a good position to score."

The Rangers have a few other hitters who have exceptional bat-to-ball skills that could fit this mold. Newcomer David Dahl has experience hitting near the top of the lineup, and the Rangers love the idea of budding prospect Leody Taveras— who would fit the traditional mold — growing into that role.

Most importantly, the Rangers want their hitters to be comfortable with moving up and down the lineup. Each game brings a different challenge. And after the year the Rangers had last year at the plate, they need to exhaust all options to increase their offensive output.

"I think guys are getting used to it now," Woodward said. "I think back 10 or 15 years ago, if you did this, guys wouldn't perform as well, because they like to know where they're hitting every day. Guys are open to it now, because they're used to being moved around a little bit more."

Promo photo: Kelly Gavin / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers

Chris Halicke covers the Texas Rangers for InsideTheRangers.com. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisHalicke.
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Published Mar 11, 2021

CHRIS HALICKE