How Realistic is a Trade for Nolan Arenado?

The Rangers have been tied to Rockies' third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade rumors. How good are the chances the Rangers can actually pull this off?

The Rangers have been tied to Rockies' third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade rumors. After missing out on Anthony Rendon and it looking like nothing will happen with Josh Donaldson, the Rangers need to find a way to address third base.

Texas' interest in the Rockies' third baseman is legitimate. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported the Rangers' interest on Thursday. 

Sources tell me that #Rangers interest in #Rockies Nolan Arenado is genuine. But at this point Rangers are just doing “due diligence.”

— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) December 19, 2019

With that latter part of the report being described as the Rangers just doing their due diligence, it would seem they are in the very early stages of working out a potential deal.

But how realistic is it that Colorado would actually trade away their superstar third baseman? How realistic is it that Texas would be willing to offer premium prospects just to get the opportunity for possibly only two years for Arenado?

There are a lot of obstacles if the Rangers are going to pull this off. First, it starts with Arenado himself. He has a full no-trade clause, so he has to okay any trade. Second, he has an opt-out in his contract after 2021, so whichever team hypothetically lands him may only get two years of him. 

Now, the Rangers could use part of the trade negotiations to try to convince Arenado to not opt out. Or they might just have to take their chances. If Arenado approves a trade to Texas, maybe he's more inclined to stay. 

One thing that may help convincing Arenado to come to Texas is the acquisition of Corey Kluber. The Rangers now boast a very strong starting rotation and already have a pretty solid lineup. Arenado's presence in the middle of the Texas lineup would make them very dangerous on the mound and at the plate.

Texas surely would not be the only team calling Colorado with a trade package for one of the best third baseman in baseball. So if Texas were to make a serious effort to land him, a trade package would have to start with potentially Josh Jung, Sam Huff, Hans Crouse, or Cole Winn. 

An exact price tag has not been reported yet, but it would more than likely cost two or three top-15 prospects, plus potentially a major-league ready player. Texas would have to give up even more if they asked Colorado to pick up any of Arenado's salary. 

If the Rangers did pull of this trade and took on the entirety of his salary, the Rangers' payroll would be where it's never been before, unless they sent a player with a significant salary back in the trade, like possibly Shin-Soo Choo. 

The Rangers still need to address third base. They were probably waiting to see if the price tag went down on Donaldson, which it doesn't look like it's going to, so they are more than likely moving on to the next plan. It sounds like Arenado is their next plan. 

If the Rangers made this move, it wouldn't be just to make a splash. They would be acquiring a very, very good player to play a position of need for them and would give the lineup a huge jolt. 

As for right now, the Rangers' interest in him is real, so in that sense, it's at least a possibility that Arenado may actually dress in Ranger red, white, and blue in 2020. How far are they willing to go to get him? And how likely is Colorado to actually pull the trigger on what would be a very unpopular move among Rockies' fans? That remains yet to be seen.