Should Rangers Pursue Jacob deGrom in Free Agency?

Jacob deGrom is considered the top prize on the free-agent market after his opt-out, but the price tag could be huge.

The Texas Rangers want veteran pitching in free agency, and there is no higher-rated option than New York Mets starter Jacob deGrom.

The New York Post lists him as their No. 2 overall free agent, after only New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge. CBS Sports and The Athletic agree, too. Two of the three sites also agree that the Rangers are a potential destination for the 33-year-old right-hander, who could be an answer to the Rangers’ top offseason need.

But what’s the price tag? It could be the most ever paid to a pitcher.

The lifelong Met is coming off making $35.5 million in 2022. His contract features a full no-trade clause and the 2023 portion of his deal comes with a player option. According to Inside the Mets, deGrom was expected to turn down the player option — which is $30 million — and hit the market.

Why? Well, more money, of course.

His teammate, Max Scherzer, broke the bank last offseason, signing a three-year, $130 million contract with an average annual value of $43.3 million. The contract set a record for the largest annual average value for a pitcher. Scherzer was 37 when he signed the deal.

Meanwhile, deGrom is about to turn 35. It’s possible he could surpass Scherzer’s deal. The Post consulted an expert that proposed deGrom’s new deal could be for three years and $125 million. That would be $41.6 million per year, just below Scherzer’s deal. The Athletic projected his deal at two years and $90 million, with a second-year opt-out. That would put the value at $45 million per year, which is a bit north of Scherzer.

So, it’s possible that deGrom could match or surpass Scherzer’s deal. The Rangers have one veteran starter under contract right now — Jon Gray. They hope to re-sign Martin Perez, who just hit the market on Sunday.

The Rangers have the money. Their current payroll for 2023 is under $100 million, with long-term deals tied up in just a handful of players. Texas owner Ray Davis has hopes of the Rangers landing two veteran starters.

The question is whether it’s worth committing more than $40 million to a pitcher that is about to turn 35 and has had injury issues of late?

He has made 15 starts or fewer in each of the three seasons — 12 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, 15 in 2021 and 11 in 2022. He was still an All-Star in 2021. Elbow inflammation ended his 2021 shortly after the All-Star Break, while a stress reaction in his right scapula delayed his 2022 debut to August. He ended up going 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA.

Before that, deGrom was durable, winning two straight Cy Young awards in 2018 and 2019. He led the National League in ERA at 1.70 in 2018 and led the NL in strikeouts with 2055 in 2019 and 104 in 2020. He was also the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year.

The Mets have been deGrom’s home his entire career. It will likely take a lot of money, and a commitment beyond one season, to pry him away from the Big Apple. Plus, there has to be faith in his medicals.

He represents the best the market has to offer. He also represents risk and a high price tag. Only the Rangers can determine if the cost is worth it.

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You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard

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