Rangers Trade for Nationals’ Juan Soto: How Could it Work?

If history is any guide, a Texas trade for the Washington superstar would be a significant investment

What would a Texas Rangers-Juan Soto trade look like?

The report that Soto turned down a monster $440 million contract extension from the Washington Nationals on Saturday sent shock waves through the game. As late as a month ago, Nats general manager Mike Rizzo said the club had no intention of trading him. The Nats made Soto a previous 13-year offer worth $350 million.

It’s clear the Nats have no choice now. If a player is going to turn down a contract that would make him, on average, one of the 20 highest-paid players of all-time, you have to deal him.

Now, the Nats don’t have to deal Soto right away. In fact, his contract is under team control through 2024. So the Nats can afford to be a little patient and see what kind of offers they get.

But if you’re looking for a game-changing young player who hasn’t even hit his prime yet, then you’re interested. The Rangers should be. But at what cost?

It could be much higher than you think. Soto is a phenom who broke into the Majors at 19, helped the Nats win the 2019 World Series and has already finished in the top 10 in National League MVP voting three times (he was the runner-up last season). He’s a nearly a .300 career hitter with every tool you can think of. He plays right field for the Nats, but he’s also played in left.

He's not a rent-a-player. He’s a build-around player. If you’re the Rangers, you’re going to have to commit at LEAST as much money as you’ve committed to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien — perhaps more.

Two trades leapt immediately to mind from recent Rangers history. Last year, the Rangers traded Joey Gallo to the Yankees for four prospects — Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, Glenn Otto and Trevor Hauver. Three of them jumped immediately into the Rangers’ Top 30 prospects. Smith, Duran and Otto have made appearances with the Rangers already. Hauver is at Class-A Hickory.

Gallo is NOT the player Soto is. It’s hard to apply that logic to this potential trade.

The other is the Mark Teixeira deal. Now, the Braves knew they were getting a rent-a-player when they made that deal in 2007. They also knew that Teixeira had turned down an 8-year, $140 million extension. But it didn’t stop the Braves from basically shoveling the high-end of their farm system at the Rangers to get the first baseman. The haul? Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus and pitchers Matt Harrison, Neftalí Feliz and Beau Jones.

Saltalamacchia was the only player in the Majors. The other four were on the farm. Rangers fans know how that trade went. A few years later, Andrus, Harrison and Feliz were helping the Rangers reach the World Series in back-to-back seasons.

The temptation here is to think that because Soto turned down the deal that the Nats don’t have leverage. They do. Because Soto is under their control through 2024, and because Soto is clearly a generational type of talent — think if Mike Trout had made it to the open market — the Nats can afford to gouge potential suitors for high-end value. Want him for a pennant run now? Pay the price.

But the Rangers wouldn’t be thinking about a pennant run now. It would be down the line. But getting Soto could give that process an accelerant. And that’s why you pay the price.

I was reminded of one other trade while writing this, one that has nothing to do with the Rangers — Miguel Cabrera. Under similar circumstances, the Florida Marlins traded Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers in 2007. Cabrera helped the Marlins to a 2003 World Series title as a rookie, and like Soto, he was looked upon as one of the game’s best players. The Marlins also knew they weren’t going to be able to keep him.

Like the Braves did with Teixeira, the Tigers shoveled prospects at the Marlins to acquire Cabrera — pitchers Andrew Miller, Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop, outfielder Cameron Maybin, and catcher Mike Rabelo. It’s important to note that at the time Maybin and Miller were two of the Top 15 minor-league talents in the game. It’s also important to know the Tigers also got pitcher Dontrelle Willis in that deal.

So, based on history, I think it’s safe to say that if you’re the Rangers and you want Soto, you’re going to have to give up at least two Top 15 prospects and at least one current Major League player. The Nats have fallen on hard times and are looking to use a trade like this to rebuild.

So what would make sense to me? I’d make the following offer to the Nats:

Infielder Ezequiel Duran, pitcher Cole Winn, pitcher Yerry Rodriquez, outfielder Bubba Thompson and outfielder Leody Taveras for Juan Soto.

That’s a steep price. That’s four Top 30 prospects and a Major-League ready outfielder.

But that’s the price you’re going to pay to acquire Soto. And if you’re not willing to pay that type of price, or something close to it, then don’t wade in.

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You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard

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