OPS vs OBP: Finding Yonny Hernandez's Value With The Rangers

Yonny Hernandez has been an on-base machine in the minor leagues, but lacks any significant slug. In a time that values OPS so much, what value does Hernandez provide the Texas Rangers?

Chris Halicke | Aug 16, 2021

ARLINGTON, Texas — Very few will argue that the game of baseball has changed over the past couple of decades. This is the age of analytics, and statistics like OPS (on-base plus slugging) have overtaken traditional stats like batting average.

If you need proof, just take a look at the scoreboard next time you're at Globe Life Field. Nope, Adolis García is notting batting .772, and Yohel Pozo is definitely not batting .917. The Rangers have OPS listed next to the players in both lineups on the scoreboard, changing from the traditional batting average that accompanied all your favorite players growing up.

While the Rangers are one of many teams who embrace the ideas driven by analytics, they still employ a few players that represent an outdated mold.

Say, "hello" to Yonny Hernandez. You may already be familiar with his nickname: Mosquito.

Hernandez earned his nickname with his style of play — a pesty, gritty player who has the capability to drive the opposition crazy. He's aggressive. He's feisty. Most importantly, he gets on base.

Throughout six minor league seasons, Hernandez has posted a .394 on-base percentage (OBP). In 61 games with Triple-A Round Rock, Hernandez has a remarkable .424 OBP. To put that in perspective, the league average in MLB this year is .317.

As impressive as Hernandez's on-base percentage is, it's just one half of OPS. We still need the slugging half to finish this simple mathematical equation.

Therein lies the problem: Hernandez doesn't slug. In those six minor league seasons, Hernandez also has a slugging percentage of just .324. The league average in MLB this year? .408. As a matter of fact, Hernandez has only hit four home runs in six seasons in professional baseball.

Add those marks together, and Hernandez has a .718 OPS, which is six points below the MLB average this season (.724).

Hernandez was called up earlier this month, and has made quite an impact in a small sample size of nine games. He's grinded out at bats, striking out only twice in 35 plate appearances. He has a slash line of .290/.343/.323/.665 in those nine games with three RBI and six runs scored. And — to no surprise — zero home runs.

But does a subpar OPS mean that Hernandez can't provide value in the Rangers lineup?

"I don't think OPS is a good indicator for his value," said Rangers manager Chris Woodward before Sunday's 7-4 win over Oakland. "He walks. He hits line drives. He's gonna turn a lot of singles into doubles just because of the way he hustles. As far as driving the ball out of the ballpark, especially in this ballpark, he's not going to do that as often. Which is fine. His true value is just getting on base. If he does that, man, he creates a lot of havoc."

Therein lies the another facet of Hernandez's game: stealing bases. He has stolen 154 bases in six minor league seasons, and has already stolen three bags in as many attempts in the big leagues. His overall steal percentage is just over 70 percent, which needs some improvement. That goes into the pest-like, aggressive style of play. And Chris Woodward loves it.

"He's going to be on second or third if that opportunity comes, he's going to take it," Woodward said. "We talk about applying pressure. There's no more pressure than when a guy like that gets on base. Pitchers have a tendency to fold and panic any time they have an opportunity to give up a run."

Prior to Sunday's game, Woodward compared Hernandez to Billy Hamilton, who has been a menace on the bases throughout his entire big league career. Now, Hernandez doesn't flash the speed Hamilton possesses. In all honesty, few do.

But Hernandez plays as if he has the speed, and he couples that with fundamentally sound baserunning. He scored from first base in the first inning of Sunday's ballgame on a double into the right-center field gap by Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Gold Glove-winning centerfielder Starling Marte got the ball in quickly, and the A's nearly nabbed Hernandez at the plate with a solid relay, but the 23-year-old Venezuelan got his hand over the plate just in time.

Prior to the game, Baseball Savant had Hernandez's sprint speed ranked in the 43rd percentile. As of Monday morning, it's now ranked in the 52nd. While that number will likely increase as MLB gathers more data as Hernandez logs more playing time, it goes back to being that type of player that the Rangers value.

"He's a threat. The threat when he gets on the bases is very similar [to Hamilton]," said Woodward. "When Billy gets on base, everyone in the world knows that he's probably going to steal. It's the same with Yonny. If you give him an opportunity, he's gonna take it. He might be a little bit overaggressive at times, especially in the minor leagues. But that's something we like.

"We've talked about applying pressure in every way possible, especially on the bases ... He does all his homework, and he's got the fearlessness to go with it. He's just a pest."

From the outset of Hernandez's big league career, Chris Woodward proceeded with caution regarding his position in the batting order. Sunday was the first time Hernandez batted leadoff, and he rewarded Woodward's decision. He went 2-for-3 with a double, single, and earned a seven-pitch walk in the first inning. He also scored twice.

It's still very early in Hernandez's career. But there could be a place for him atop the lineup if and when the Rangers get a solid group of consistent hitters in the middle of the order. If Hernandez can maintain his ability to get on base in the big leagues, he could be a valuable player, buzzing around the bases.

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Published Aug 16, 2021

CHRIS HALICKE