Rangers' Ace Lance Lynn Continues to Succeed with the Fastball, Despite MLB's Opposing Trend

While baseball trends toward the breaking ball, Texas Rangers ace Lance Lynn continues to have success with a heavy dose of fastballs.

Walter Johnson. Roger Clemens. Nolan Ryan.

The fastball was once the dominant pitch in Major League Baseball. These three pitchers earned their nicknames based on the reputation of their respective fastballs. 

We now live in a time where the fastball is no longer the majority in pitch selections. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci dove into the decline of the fastball in recent years, where he details its rapid drop in usage since 2015. 

With the game shifting toward less fastballs and more breaking balls or offspeed pitches, it makes pitchers like Texas Rangers ace Lance Lynn a bit of a unicorn.

"Nowadays, we have so much information on pitchers," Rangers manager Chris Woodward said. "Knowing exactly how many pitches they throw, what percentage of pitches they throw. When you're a fastball-curveball or slider-changeup (pitcher), those are recognizable for hitters, especially fastball-curveball. There's been a lot of guys nowadays that spin their breaking ball. As a hitter, you see that more."

According to Statcast, Lance Lynn has thrown more four-seam fastballs than anyone in baseball. Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 350 pitches prior to Saturday's games, Lynn also has the highest percentage of four-seam fastballs thrown 57.3 percent of the time. 

In addition, Lynn is even more unique than other fastball-heavy pitchers. New York's Gerrit Cole follows up his fastball usage (57.2 percent) with a heavy dose of his slider (23.4 percent) and curveball (15.1 percent). San Diego's Chris Paddack also heavily relies on his four-seamer (57.0 percent), but follows it with a heavy dose of his changeup (31.4 percent). 

Lynn's secondary pitch? A cutter (21.3 percent). His third pitch? A sinker/two-seam fastball (11.9 percent).

There's still some debate over whether a sinker or two-seamer are the same thing (here's a good read from Fangraphs on the debate). With Lynn, it's a two-seam grip that darts down hard with some arm-side run. His manager Chris Woodward called it a two-seamer.

"Lynn has three different fastballs," Woodward said. "Two of them are elite. His four-seamer has a ton of ride at the top of the zone, almost 20 inches of vertical ride. He has a two-seamer that's one of the most elite two-seamers as well. You're talking about two pitches that come out of the same slot that do (different things). You have to choose one of those as a hitter. You can't hit both of those. The four-seamer—with his extension, his velocity, with everything—is really hard to hit."

Three variations of a fastball account for 90.5 percent of Lynn's repertoire. He's thrown his curveball 8.4 percent of the time and his changeup just six times out of his 535 total pitches in 2020.

Before Saturday's slate of games, Lynn leads all pitchers in baseball in innings pitched (32 1/3) and is tied for the lead with a 1.1 fWAR. He is also third in ERA (1.11), tied for third in strikeouts (36), and seventh in WHIP (0.74). 

How can a pitcher that goes against the massive trend in baseball be among the game's best pitchers over a quarter through this 60-game season?

"The one thing about Lance, and as we look forward to the future of baseball, the two-pitch fastball-breaking ball has been really successful for some guys," Woodward said. "The guys with two different fastballs are even more elite because you can't recognize it until it's too far. So you have to choose one before it comes out of his hand. If you try to hit his four-seamer off his two-seamer, you've got no chance. You're hitting it into the ground. So, he throws that cutter off of that. He's literally throwing three different fastballs, so everyone says he's a fastball pitcher. He's got three different pitches with his fastball, which is different. He's not throwing one four-seamer or one two-seamer. There's three elite pitches, really."

During Lynn's successful run in St. Louis before Tommy Joh surgery forced him to miss all of 2016, Lynn heavily relied on his four-seam fastball with his two-seamer as his secondary pitch. When Lynn returned from Tommy John, he dropped his four-seam usage to 36.7 percent in 2017 and 44.9 percent in 2018. While his overall numbers in 2017 were relatively solid, his 2018 campaign was one to forget.

When Lynn signed a three-year deal with the Rangers, he reverted back to a heavy dose of the four-seamer. He overcame a rough start to the season and wound up finishing fifth in the American League Cy Young voting. Now in 2020, he's throwing the four-seamer more than ever before and is looking like a legitimate Cy Young candidate through four starts.

"It's pretty cool to listen to him talk about pitching," Woodward said. "I think in the past it was just, 'I'm going to throw my fastball, I'm going to throw my curveball, and that's it.' Now, he has so many different ways to get guys out. He's really good at reading swings. If he feels like a guy is trying to get on top of his four-seamer, he throws his two-seamer. If he feels like a guy is trying to get under of his two-seamer, he throws his four-seamer. ...He's so good at manipulating the baseball to put them where he wants. A lot of guys don't have the ability to do that. That's why he's so successful."

Lynn's capabilities likely won't change the trend in baseball. As Verducci pointed out, the numbers on the game's best curveballs and sliders are too good to stop that train from leaving the station. But with what Lynn has done in 2019 and thus far in 2020, he's showing there is still more than one way to pitch successfully in today's game. 

“I’m different than everyone else and I always have been," Lynn said following his two-hit complete game in Colorado. "Breaking balls are the new—that’s what everybody wants—spin rate, this and that. Moving the ball to both sides of the plate, up and down, in and out, that keeps hitters uncomfortable. If that works, then I’m going to keep doing it.”

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