Rangers Opening Day Roster Projection 2.0

With two weeks until the Texas Rangers break camp, the Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape.

Chris Halicke | Mar 15, 2021

When spring training began, projecting the Texas Rangers' Opening Day roster seemed like an impossible endeavor. There were a few locks, but the rest of it was some of my best educated guesses with a few blind tosses at a dartboard — I was just hoping to hit something.

I'm happy to report that Projection 1.0 was not a cataclysmic failure. All 26 players from my first projection are still on the active roster, meaning they are still in the hunt for an Opening Day roster spot.

Obviously, quite a bit has happened in the past couple of weeks, so there are a few changes this time around. Three injuries have made things a little easier to predict, but there are a couple players who have really made some noise in camp.

So here at the unofficial halfway point of Cactus League play, here is Opening Day Projection 2.0:

Catchers (2)

Jose Trevino, Jonah Heim

The Opening Day starter is Jose Trevino. Next.

If the start of the Triple-A season was not delayed until May, I would have non-roster invitee Drew Butera backing up Jose Trevino on the Opening Day roster. Why? The Rangers want Jonah Heim to play. Period. They really like him and don't want him to play once every seven days, twice if he's lucky.

However, with no Triple-A season in April, the only other alternatives are working out at the alternate training site or going to minor league camp. The former wouldn't be as productive as being one of 26 guys in a major league clubhouse, and the latter is not an option.

In addition, several pitchers have said they like throwing to Heim, who presents a large target behind the plate. He has also displayed a very strong and accurate arm during Cactus League play, so I'm going with Heim to back up Trevino.

Infielders (6)

Ronald Guzmán, Nick Solak, Rougned Odor, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nate Lowe, Charlie Culberson*

*- non-roster invitee

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the starting shortstop. Next.

When Ronald Guzmán won the MVP of the Dominican Winter League, everyone wanted to see if he would be able to carry over any success.

The short answer is yes. The longer answer explains how Guzmán’s swing looks shorter and quicker, and his at-bat quality has been consistently productive.

Ultimately, I believe Guzmán has done enough for the Rangers to warrant a spot on the Opening Day roster, regardless of what happens with Willie Calhoun’s groin issue.

If Calhoun starts the season on the Injured List, that paves the way for both Guzmán and Nate Lowe to make the team out of camp, with one competing for at-bats at designated hitter and the other manning first base.

I think everyone would agree that Rougned Odor has taken the third base job by the horns. Just ignoring the offensive side of things for a second, Odor has made every play possible at the hot corner, including diving plays in the hole and charging a ball and barehanding it to make a tough out at first base.

Obviously, the biggest question regarding Rougned Odor is if he can finally find some consistency at the plate. We’ve all seen him have great springs and fail to sustain that success as soon as the team travels back to Arlington.

As far as Nick Solak goes, the Rangers are satisfied with everything he’s done. He’s had no alarming issues in the field, and he’s recently turned a corner at the plate.

At utility infielder, it could be either Charlie Culberson or Brock Holt. I’m going with the former as of now for his more expanded versatility in the field. In addition, he provides another right-handed bat to help balance out the roster.

Outfielders (5)

David Dahl, Leody Taveras, Joey Gallo, Khris Davis, Eli White

Joey Gallo is the starting right fielder. Next.

David Dahl has started the spring off a bit slowly, but has seemed to turn a corner in recent days. It doesn’t seem like his shoulder is bothering him at the plate or in the field, so all signs currently point to Dahl getting the majority of the reps in left field to start the season.

If you were to ask me a week ago, I would believe Leody Taveras’ chances of being the Opening Day center fielder were in doubt. He had been struggling at the plate, showing signs of an immature kid rather than a patient veteran like he did in his debut last year.

However, Taveras has raised his at-bat quality in recent days, and it’s resulted in positive results in the box score. I think the chances of leading off have diminished a bit, but at the time of writing this, I still believe he’ll be in center field on April 1 in Kansas City.

When camp begun, Khris Davis and Willie Calhoun were poised to compete for the most at-bats at designated hitter. Now, Willie Calhoun’s groin injury has him in danger of missing Opening Day and Khris Davis is 1-for-18 so far this spring.

I still have Davis making the roster due to his $16.75 million salary, and his reputation of being a much needed right-handed power bat and a poor spring training performer. However, it’s more than fair to say his chances have gone down since the start of camp.

On the other hand, Eli White is forcing the Rangers’ hand. Texas has a plethora of outfielders competing for spots, but White is having arguably the strongest camp of anyone not named Joey Gallo.

White’s speed and versatility give the Rangers a strong right-handed option as the 26th player in the clubhouse.

Starting Rotation (7)

RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Kohei Arihara, RHP Mike Foltynewicz, RHP Jordan Lyles, RHP Dane Dunning, RHP Kyle Cody, LHP Wes Benjamin

Seven starters in a rotation? I'm not crazy, I promise.

The bottom line is this rotation will not be your traditional one-through-five. Kyle Gibson, Kohei Arihara, and Mike Foltynewicz are all but officially locked in as traditional starters. After that, you have what Chris Woodward is calling a tandem, or piggyback, system.

Jordan Lyles will likely spearhead one of the tandem spots, with Dane Dunning and Kyle Cody competing for the starting spot in the other. Whichever guy doesn’t win that spot could be the piggyback in either tandem.

Chris Woodward has done nothing but praise Wes Benjamin in camp. He even said on Sunday Benjamin may be the best pitcher in camp right now. If that’s not a glowing reference for a job, I don’t know what is.

Benjamin throws strikes and can log innings — two traits the Rangers love to see in their pitchers. It’s possible that Benjamin is put in a traditional long relief role, but either way, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Benjamin isn’t one of 26 players heading back to Arlington in two weeks.

Bullpen (6)

RHP José Leclerc, RHP Ian Kennedy, LHP Brett Martin, RHP Matt Bush, RHP Brett de Geus**, LHP Taylor Hearn

*- non-roster invitee
**- Rule 5 Draft pick

The loss of Jonathan Hernández until possibly the end of May is a huge blow to the bullpen. It’s hard to find another pitcher on the Rangers, or in all of baseball, who throws 98-mph sinkers.

In addition, Joely Rodríguez is in danger of missing Opening Day as an ankle injury set him back at the beginning of camp. He could be ready, but I believe he’ll start with a short stint on the IL to finish building up his arm.

José Leclerc and Brett Martin are all but officially guaranteed spots in the bullpen, and Brett de Geus has done plenty in camp to earn a job as well. With the Rangers missing two arms in Hernández and Rodríguez in the back end of the bullpen, they could really benefit from Ian Kennedy’s experience there.

Taylor Hearn is neck-and-neck with Wes Benjamin for one of the tandem spots. As of now, I have Benjamin in a slight lead given the amount of praise he is receiving from Chris Woodward. Hearn has been just as strong as Benjamin this spring, displaying a dangerous three-pitch mix. Either Hearn or Benjamin could be very strong in a traditional long relief role.

My bold prediction this time around is Matt Bush earns a job out of camp. His stuff looks sharp and the Rangers are really satisfied with his mindset. In addition, they love the idea of Bush taking on a leadership role for the younger arms in the bullpen.

Josh Sborz could just as easily win the final spot in the bullpen over Bush. The Rangers really like him. However, he still has options remaining, so I’m going with Bush successfully making his return to the big leagues.

Promo photo: Kelly Gavin / Courtesy of the Texas Rangers

Chris Halicke covers the Texas Rangers for InsideTheRangers.com. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisHalicke.
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Published Mar 15, 2021

CHRIS HALICKE