Andrew Heaney Aims to Reach Potential With Rangers

The Texas Rangers' newest pitcher has never won 10 games but has two traits that could be useful in 2023.

Andrew Heaney is, perhaps, the definition of unfulfilled potential.

A former first-round pick of the Miami Marlins, Heaney has played for four different teams since he broke into the Majors in 2014. He’s never won 10 games in a season and came closest in 2018 with the Los Angeles Angels when the left-hander finished 9-10. He lost most of his 2016 and 2017 seasons to Tommy John surgery.

He has a 36-42 career record with a 4.56 ERA. He’s started 30 or more games in a season just twice — in 2018 and 2021.

On Tuesday, after agreeing with the Rangers on a two-year contract, he theoretically became the club’s fifth starter behind Jacob deGrom, Martín Pérez, Jon Gray and Jake Odorizzi. All four have a better track record in the Majors than Heaney.

The other four projected starters in the Rangers rotation have won 10 or more games multiple times.

The Rangers also gave Heaney a chance to fulfill some of the potential that, to this point, he hasn’t met.

His contract isn’t onerous — two years at $25 million, with an opt-out after 2023. It boasts plenty of incentives that could allow him to make $37 million.

It also doesn’t cut off the young starters from competing for that fifth spot. A signing like a Carlos Rodón or a Kodai Senga would have done that. But young starters like Glenn Otto, Dane Dunning, Spencer Howard or Cole Ragans could take a run at Heaney in spring training.

Competition isn’t a bad thing, especially when it comes with minimal risk.

But why take the risk? No, Heaney doesn’t have a great track record. But he does appear to have quality pitches in a couple of key areas.

This is where data makes Heaney intriguing on a one- or two-year proposition. MLB.com provided two data points on Heaney and his pitches last season — where he went 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 16 appearances with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The first is chase rate or the percentage of time you can get a hitter to chase pitches out of the zone. Heaney’s chase rate is up there with the Rangers’ new ace.

highest chase rate induced as SP, 2022 (min 500 out-of-zone pitches):

Kevin Gausman: 39.7%
Jacob deGrom: 37.5%
Andrew Heaney: 36.9%

that’s fun

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) December 6, 2022

The second is a combination of chase rate, whiff rate (swings and misses) and strikeout rate. Four pitches were in the 95th percentile of that combination last season. Heaney was one. deGrom was another.

pitchers in the 95th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate & strikeout rate, 2022:

Andrew Heaney
Jacob deGrom
Andrés Muñoz
Edwin Díaz

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) December 6, 2022

With the Dodgers last season, Heaney struck out 110 hitters and walked just 19. Normally a fastball/curveball/change-up pitcher, Heaney added a slider with Los Angeles.

New Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux wants pitchers that are unafraid to throw their fastball in the zone and can throw at least one more pitch for a strike. Heaney appeared to do that last season, even though he missed a good portion of the season due to injury.

That’s the key for Heaney to give the Rangers the reward for their risk — a healthy season.

When he’s healthy, he has a high strikeout-to-walk ratio and struck out a hitter an inning for his career. Those are traits that could be valuable in a fifth starter.

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You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard

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