What AL West Standings On June 1 Predict For Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros

History tells us that teams leading their division on June 1 have won the division nearly 60% of the time since 1996. And with a wild card unlikely for the AL West, winning the division is imperative.

May 29, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodriguez (44), third from left, and shortstop J.P. Crawford (3), third from right, celebrate after a game against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners have a four-game lead on the Texas Rangers atop the American League West on June 1.

What's the significance of this? History tells us that teams leading their division on June 1 win their division nearly 60% of the time, according to MLB.com's Sarah Langs.

Since 1996, 95 of 162 division champions held at least a share of first place on June 1.

A year ago on June 1, the Rangers had a three-game lead in the AL West with a 35-20 record. Of course, you'll remember the Rangers didn't actually win the division. They finished tied with the Houston Astros, who won the division because of a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rangers earned a wild card spot and beat the Astros 4-3 in the ALCS en route to their first World Series championship.

But they way things have gone the first two months, the AL West is unlikely to earn a wild card in the 2024 postseason. Seven teams currently sit above the Rangers and Astros, who are 6.5 games back in the West, in the wild card standings.

In 2023, four of the six divisions were won by a team leading their division on June 1. The Rays and Rangers are the two that didn't and both earned wild card spots.

According to Langs, the only season in which all six division winners led on June 1 was in 1998.

Also, 15 of the 27 World Series champions since 1996 (not counting 2020) led their division on June 1. The Rangers aren't the only defending World Series champion to trail their division lead the following season. In fact, it's quite common. Only six defending champs were in first place the following June 1 since 1996, according to Langs. The Astros were the last defending champ to do it in 2018.

All six current division leaders have had a share of the lead on June 1 at least once since 2018, except for the Mainers. Seattle last led on June 1 in 2003.

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