My Two Cents: Can Rays Hitters Simply Flip a Switch When Playoffs Start Friday?
CLEVELAND, Ohio— It's a good thing, it turned out, that Major League Baseball expanded its playoff format to 12 teams this season, six in each league. Because it's the Tampa Bay Rays who are the first ever No 6 seed in the American League in a full season.
The Rays are in the postseason, and that's really all that matters. How they got there really isn't an issue anymore. The fact that their hitters have been staggering like a shipload of drunken sailors on leave is a concern only if it carriers over to Friday, when Tampa Bay starts a best-of-three series in Cleveland in the wild-card round.
They have gone 4-12 in their last 16 games, scoring a grand total of EIGHT runs in 10 of those losses. (They did score three runs twice in Boston around a shutout.) Where the postseason optimism comes from, of course, is knowing they can be better offensively, even during a rough patch.
For instance, in those four wins, they scored 33 runs against postseason teams Toronto, Cleveland and Houston. That's more than eight runs per game.
Weird team, these Rays.
With a day to prep in chilly Cleveland, it's really important to take a more serious look at those 12 losses. They only scored one run in six straight losses, plus got shut out twice on back-to-back nights by Houston, and then scored two runs in the sweep on the final day.
In the nine losses before Boston, there were just 49 hits, an average of 5.4 per game. There were just 11 extra base hits — 10 doubles and a just one home run (Isaac Paredes) — and that will not work in the postseason.
Lefty hitters in a major funk
The biggest problem the Rays have right now is that they get very little out of their left-handed hitters lately, and that's a real problem come Friday when the Guardians are lined up to use three straight righties — Shane Bieber, Tristan McKenzie and Cal Quantrill — in that wild-card round.
Look at how bad the production has been lately from Tampa Bay's left-handed bats:
- JONATHAN ARANDA: Aranda was brought up from Triple-A Durham, where he hit .318 with 18 homers and 85 RBIs, to provide that lefty spark that the Rays were lacking. But the league has figured him out quickly, and he's been slow to adjust. Since Sept. 23, he's 0-for-22 with 11 strikeouts. You can't pencil him into a playoff lineup, can you?
- JI-MAN CHOI: Choi just might be the biggest disappointment on this Rays team in 2022. Since June 29, he's done next to nothing for Tampa Bay, and that was after a promising start to the season. He's was just 29-for-177 since that day, a putrid .164 average before having a few good days in Boston. He also had only 15 RBIs, and struck out a whopping 66 times. Cash has continued to trot him out there lately, but is he really the best option at first base in the postseason, even against all the right-handers? Were they last few days enough to give us hope that he can contribute in the postseason?
- DAVID PERALTA: The Rays' big trade deadline move hasn't panned out as they would have hoped. Peralta, a 36-year-old veteran acquired from Arizona, hasn't hit a single home run in 155 at-bats with the Rays, and has just 18 RBIs as well. He's had a couple of two-hit games lately, but he hit just .222 in September and had to leave Sunday's game with hip tightness. He was 0-for-15 in those first five losses. What can he give the Rays in the postseason?
The Rays do have a lot of switch-hitters, which helps with matchups, but only if it works.
Tampa Bay catcher Francisco Mejia is a prime example of that. Against left-handed pitchers, he's been great, hitting .345 in 88 at-bats. But batting left-handed against righties, he's hitting just .203. He hasn't hit a home run since July 17 and has driven in only eight runs total since July 23, and three of them came on the same day. And he's done nothing lately.
Wander Franco has been very good since returning from wrist surgery, and he's going to be relied upon a lot in the postseason. Taylor Walls, also a switch-hitter, is hitting just .174 against righties in 288 at-bats. That's a plenty big sample size that says he cannot get at-bats against the Guardians. A late-inning defensive replacement maybe, but we don't need to see him at the plate.
It also doesn't help that a lot of the right-handed hitters have cooled off, too. Here's what has gone on in the 10 losses since Sept. 19, all against right-handed starters: These are the Sept. 19-21 games against Houston, Sept. 24-25 against Toronto, Sept. 28-29 at Cleveland, Oct. 1-2 at Houston and Tuesday's shutout loss at Boston.
The numbers — through the entire lineup — is brutal. Check this out:
- Jonanthan Aranda: 0-for-26 through the 10 losses.
- Randy Arozarena: 5-for-29 overall, but 0-for-14 in his last four games.
- Isaac Paredes: 2-for-22, an .091 average.
- David Peralta: 0-for-17 in the first five losses, had back-to-back two-hit games before getting hurt.
- Jose Siri: 3-for-21, a .143 average.
- Harold Ramirez: The team's best hitter was 8-for-17 in this first five losses, but 0-for-12 since.
- Wander Franco: Like Ramirez, he's been good too, going 8-for-28 in the losses, but just 2-for-11 in the last four.
- Christian Bethancourt: He's 5-for-23.
- Yandy Diaz: He's been resting a sore shoulder and is 1-for-7 in the losses, but he's had some big hits in the wins. (More on him in a minute)
- Manuel Margot: He was just 3-for-23, a .130 average, before a two-hit game in the finale at Houston.
- Francisco Mejia: He's been just 1-for-12 in the losses. He's got a new baby now, which might change his luck.
- Ji-Man Choi: So bad for so long, he seems to be finding his stroke. He was 5-for-19 in this sample size, but has had some other big hits these past few days in Boston. Much like Diaz, more on Ji-Man as well.
- Taylor Walls: A sub .200 hitter all year, it's no surprise that he's been just 2-for-14 during this stretch.
- Miles Mastrobuoni: The rookie was just 1-for-12 in these losses, and didn't really give the Rays the boost they were hoping for. That's why he was sent back down for Vidal Brujan instead.
Who are the keys vs. Cleveland?
I'm going to break this up into two groups. I think there are two guys who have to be impact players in this series, shortstop Wander Franco and outfielder Randy Arozarena. Franco has been very good since coming back from surgery, and I'm confident he will have a big series. Same for Arozarena, the 2020 postseason hero. This is his time, and I think his bat heats back up after a quiet week and change. He hasn't homered since Sept. 23.
The two keys, to me, are Yandy Diaz and Ji-Man Choi. Diaz is a professional hitter, and he won't mind taking all these Cleveland righties to right field when given the chance. Rays manager Kevin Cash has managed his rest well with this shoulder injury in the final week of the season, and he's gotten enough work in to be ready to go physically. He needs to produce at the top of the order. It's a must.
And Choi? Man, I've gone back and forth on this. When he was posting Brett Phillips-like numbers for two-plus months, I was wondering why Cash kept putting him out there. I thought he was done, of no use going forward. But Cash gave him time to find things, and now he's had three multi-hit games since last Wednesday. Is the turnaround complete?
With Aranda and even Paredes — two potential starters at first base — struggling so bad, they don't deserve to start ahead of him at first against these right-handers. I'm guessing Cash will have faith to pencil Choi into the Game 1 lineup, and It'll be up to Choi to reward him for his patience.
Let's leave this with some positive thoughts. Those 10-run games against the Jays are still fresh in my mind, as are the seven runs in Houston in Framber Valdez's start. The Rays are capable, they just need to do it.
And remember this: Shane Bieber, Cleveland's Game 1 starter, was the starter in. the first game of the series two weeks ago. The Rays touched him for four runs in six innings and won in extra innings on Sept. 27. So he can be beaten.
And Game 2 starter Triston McKenzie? He held the Rays to one run on three hits the next night (Sept. 28) but he's also just 25, has never pitched in a postseason game and has lost 11 games this year. In his 30 starts, he's given up three runs or more 10 times. He can be hit.
That's the glass-half-full thought, of course. What we know for sure is that despite all of the Rays' offensive flaws this season, they have made it to the postseason. Now they just need to flip that switch and get some big hits this weekend. If they do, they win this series.
And this five-game losing streak? I still don't think it means anything. The 2000 Yankees won the World Series after losing five straight to end the season, and so did the 1987 Minnesota Twins. The 2006 Tigers stumbled into the playoffs, too, and made it to the World Series before losing to the St. Louis Cardinals.
So it does happen. This past week hasn't meant anything, just like coming into the playoffs red hot also often doesn't meaning anything either. Remember last year? The Rays won 100 games and 7-of-9 down the stretch, but then played like garbage in the ALDS against the Red Sox?
We didn't see that coming either. So just know that Friday is a new day. We start from scratch, with McClanahan against Bieber, two similar teams that win with pitching and defense.
Get hot for a couple of days. That's all it takes.
Related stories on Rays baseball
- AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF SCHEDULE: Here is the complete American League playoff schedule for the 2022 postseason, with gametimes and TV information, plus starting pitchers where applicable. CLICK HERE
- RED SOX BEAT RAYS IN SEASON FINALE (Wednesday): Ji-Man Choi had three hits, but the Tampa Bay Rays lost for the fifth straight time since clinching a playoff spot. This time it was the Red Sox who won, 6-3 on the final day of the regular season. CLICK HERE
- ROUGH NIGHT FOR POCHE (Tuesday): The Tampa Bay Rays, on cruise control heading into the playoffs, lost for the fourth straight time on Tuesday, falling 6-0 to the Boston Red Sox in a rain-shortened game that turned when reliever Colin Poche gave up a grand slam in the fifth inning. The regular season ends on Wednesday. CLICK HERE
- GLASNOW SHINES IN SECOND START (Monday): Tyler Glasnow pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings and has earned a postseason start, and Wander Franco and Manuel Margot had home runs on Monday, but the Boston Red Sox rallied to beat Tampa Bay 4-3 at Fenway Park as the Rays look forward to the postseason that begins on Friday. CLICK HERE
- GUARDIANS ARE RED-HOT: Cleveland finished the final 30 games of the regular seaason with a 24-6 record as they get ready for its postseason series against Tampa Bay. CLICK HERE
Tom Brew is the publisher of Inside The Rays, and has been with the Sports Illustrated/FanNation network for three years. He is an award-winning writer and editor who has spent most of his four-decade career at the Tampa Bay Times, Indianapolis Star and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. He has written four books.