My Two Cents: Six Games Back, Can Rays Really Catch the Reeling Yankees?
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The names will remain redacted to protect the innocent, but on an early July Sunday in Cincinnati, after the Tampa Bay Rays had been swept by one of the worst teams in baseball, the Rays' fan pages were filled with vitriol.
The Rays, just 45-40 at the time, were 15 1/2 games behind the red-hot New York Yankees. New York was off to a record-setting start, were the toast of baseball and were 61-23 to start that weekend. To make matters worse, Rays star shortstop Wander Franco was hurt again, and off to the injured list for a couple of months, as was veteran center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who would be lost for the year with a hip injury.
"Who would have ever guessed this season would have ended in Cincinnati in early July?'' the voice said.
It was worth believing because the Yankees were crazy good. Their hitters were ripping the cover off the ball, their starting pitching from top to bottom in the rotation was great, and their bullpen, led by Clay Holmes, was nasty.
The Rays were falling apart, both physically and mentally, and it did seem like the season was over. Winning the division, which the Rays had done in both 2020 and 2021, seemed out of the question. It was wild-card or bust.
But in the two months since then, things have changed dramatically. The Yankees, who were being touted as a team that could set the all-time wins record, have collapsed. Outside of Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo, they've stopped hitting. Their pitching has slipped badly, too, especially the bullpen. They're a mess, which is why they've gone 18-29 since then. They're struggling, they're banged up and they are scratching for answers.
They arrive in St. Petersburg for a three-game series with the Rays, and that once-massive lead is now down to six games. Six measly games. They play three games this weekend, and then three more in New York next weekend to wrap up the 19-game season series.
It begs the question: Can the Rays really catch them?
Six games is nothing, really, especially not when you've got six games with them in the next week and change. I keep waiting for the Yankees to right the ship, but they don't. They won five in a row from Aug. 21-26 and seemed to be getting their house in order. But then they lost two straight to the horrible Oakland A's and lost two of three games in a series with the Los Angeles Angels.
The Rays owe the Angels a thank you, by the way. Tampa Bay swept them in a four-game series from Aug. 22-25, but then the Angels turned around and swept playoff contender Toronto and took two of three from the Yankees. They helped the Rays make up a lot of ground on both of them.
I was feeling pretty good about the Rays making a division run until Shane McClanahan went down with a shoulder injury on Tuesday night. The tests went great, and he should be back in a few weeks, but we know with shoulder injuries that two weeks can turn into four — or more — in a hurry.
That deflates my Rays optimism balloon a little bit. The Rays' September schedule is the toughest in the American League. They will miss McClanahan, who can't come off the injured list until Sept. 15 at the earliest. That's three starts missed, maybe more. We're probably swapping Ryan Yarbrough for McClanahan, and that's a huge difference.
With only 33 games to go, every one will matter.
And that starts on Friday, of course. The opener — which pits New York's Domingo German (2-2, 3.19 ERA) against Tampa Bay's Jeffrey Springs (6-4, 2.76 ERA) — starts off at 7:10 p.m. ET. They'll go again at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, and at 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The Rays are unsure of their Saturday pitching plans, and they'll probably go with the veteran Corey Kluber on Sunday. What's a good weekend? Winning at least two would be great, a sweep wonderful. But this is still the Yankees, and there's no McClanahan or Drew Rasmussen to be found on the mound for the Rays.
Gain a little, that'd be good. Gain a lot, that would be great.
Catching the Yankees, despite their current struggles, will be tough. You have to remember that the Rays have the toughest September schedule in baseball, with these six against the Yankees, nine against the Blue Jays, six against the Houston Astros — who have the best record in the AL — and three against AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians.
So can they catch them? My gut says no, especially without McClanahan. But have fun this weekend, and put some pressure on them. Pitching has carried this Tampa Bay team all year, but now it's time for the offense to step up in a big way. Getting to German, Clarke Schmidt and Frankie Motas — the Yankees' three starters this weekend, is entirely possible.
Score 15 or more runs this weekend, and see how it plays out.
And have fun doing it.
Tom Brew is the publisher of Inside The Rays, and has been with the Sports Illustrated/FanNation network for three years. He is an award-winning writer and editor who has spent most of his four-decade career at the Tampa Bay Times, Indianapolis Star and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. He has written four books.