ESPN Insider Predicts Red Sox's Playoff Odds, Names 'Biggest Strength'

The Red Sox are right on the cusp on contention...

Aug 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) celebrates with third baseman Rafael Devers (11) after scoring a run during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The prospect of meaningful September baseball at Fenway Park is a wonderful thing for the Boston Red Sox.

After back-to-back years of falling out of the race relatively early, the Red Sox remain in the hunt as August draws to a close. At 67-59, Boston trails the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins by 3 1/2 games each in the Wild Card hunt, with the other top American League teams not too far out of reach.

At this stage of the season, every game is critical. The Red Sox open a huge three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the defending National League champions, at Fenway Park this weekend. But as things stand, how good are the odds Boston can make it back to October in 2024?

One insider sought to answer that very question on Friday. And he also named what he believes is the strongest asset that the Red Sox have going for them in their quest for the postseason.

ESPN's David Schoenfield, using Bradford Doolittle's subjective postseason odds, gave the Red Sox a 47.6% chance to make it to the playoffs, which is slightly higher than the statistical models from ESPN and Fangraphs currently give Boston.

"After a tough stretch, the Red Sox... just took two of three from the Orioles and two of three from the Astros, so if they can get any kind of pitching, they have a chance," Schoenfield said.

What's more, Schoenfield named the dynamic duo of center fielder Jarren Duran and third baseman Rafael Devers as the "biggest strength" behind Boston's playoff push.

"As for Boston's dynamic duo, no, Devers and Duran aren't Judge and Soto, but they lead one of the best offenses in the league," Schoenfield said. "They rank fourth and fifth in the majors in extra-base hits, with Duran leading the AL in both doubles and triples."

Both 27 years old, Duran and Devers have emerged as the faces of Boston's dynamic, young offensive core. But for the Red Sox to climb out of their hole in the wild card race, they'll need both to be at least as good, if not better, than they have been all year long.

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