Handicapping Red Sox's Chances In Blockbuster Roki Sasaki Sweepstakes

Can the Red Sox get involved in the biggest free-agent sweepstakes of the winter?

Mar 20, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Japan starting pitcher Roki Sasaki (14) delivers a pitch during the first inning against Mexico at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

It's no longer hypothetical, it's here. Roki Sasaki is coming to Major League Baseball.

Early Saturday morning (in the Eastern Time zone), Sasaki's Japanese club, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced that they would respect the wishes of the 23-year-old right-handed pitcher. Though it doesn't benefit the club financially as it would if they waited two more years, Sasaki will be posted this winter, and all 30 clubs will have a shot at him.

Sasaki coming to MLB now makes him much more affordable compared to waiting two more years. He is eligible for only a minor-league contract, plus as much international signing bonus pool money as a club is willing to offer him.

So with the playing field so level, where do the Boston Red Sox, who desperately need starting pitching help, stand?

Firstly, it's worth acknowledging that many insiders see the Los Angeles Dodgers as strong favorites to win the Sasaki sweepstakes. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN gave the Red Sox and other teams a glimmer of hope on Saturday, saying Sasaki to the Dodgers wasn't a done deal just yet.

"Los Angeles will be linked strongly to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature," Passan said. "While the presence of Sasaki's Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is advantageous, the attention they bring -- and the media horde that follows them -- adds a different element than other teams."

Wondering why the Red Sox, and any other team, might be interested in Sasaki? Passan summed that up in a single sentence.

"Sasaki, nicknamed "The Monster of the Reiwa Era," throws a fastball that regularly reaches triple digits and complements it with a frontline split-fingered fastball and a slider."

The Red Sox were among the teams that sent scouts to Japan to watch Sasaki pitch in the second half of the 2024 season. They have one of Sasaki's Samurai Japan teammates on the squad as well in Masataka Yoshida.

When it comes to the money, in this case, it's pretty much a wash. The Red Sox would have an advantage if Sasaki was posted before Dec. 15, because they have more international bonus pool money remaining than most clubs, but that's unlikely to happen, because the posting process typically takes several weeks.

Boston is a team on the come-up, and to some degree, they have familiarity with Sasaki. In theory, they should be interested in paying him hundreds of millions of dollars when his rookie contract runs out. That makes them a team to watch with an outside chance to scoop up the young fireballer.

But unfortunately, if you're looking for concrete evidence that the Red Sox are hot on Sasaki's tail, that smoke has unfortunately yet to begin to fly.

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