Insider Predicts Red Sox Top Free-Agent Target Will Land $247 Million Contract

Can Boston match the price tag on this superstar hurler?

Sep 20, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a third inning pitch against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Free agency is on the horizon, and the Boston Red Sox will soon have to start preparing their bids for the top names on their wish list.

Coming off a disappointing finish to a .500 season, the Red Sox are in playoff-or-bust mode. They've got some talented pieces in place, but the roster doesn't yet resemble that of a World Series contender. Free agency is where they'll have to put the final puzzle pieces into place.

Knowing who to go after in free agency is one thing, but knowing how much to offer them is another. And with starting pitching as an obvious need, the Red Sox have to know that in order to lock down a big name, they'll be asked to pay a hefty sum.

The top free-agent pitcher on nearly everyone's list is Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes, who will hit the open market after yet another dominant season. Jim Bowden of The Athletic named the Red Sox as a potential suitor for Burnes this winter.

"This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February," Bowden said.

"He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason."

In addition to the Red Sox, Bowden listed the Orioles, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers as fits for Burnes. But the kicker was the price tag--Bowden predicted that Burnes would land a seven-year, $247 million contract from whichever team ends up signing him.

A quarter-billion dollars is a worthy expenditure for a pitcher who reliably makes 30-plus starts per season with an ERA at or below three. Burnes isn't only dominant, he's extremely durable, which is a skill worth its weight in gold in the modern era of Major League Baseball.

Boston has to be willing to make such an investment this winter--if not in Burnes, than in one of the other top two or three free-agent pitchers. They've bided their time long enough, and now, the Red Sox need to deliver in 2025 with a playoff appearance.

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