Latest Nick Pivetta Contract Projection Could Make Red Sox's Decision Look Smart

Will Craig Breslow's gamble pay off?

Sep 27, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

All of New England seemed to be briefly scratching their heads on Monday night, thanks to the Boston Red Sox's decision to give the qualifying offer to starting pitcher Nick Pivetta.

After a season that ranked somewhere between solid and mediocre, Pivetta was all set to hit the open market for the first time in his career. Then, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow slapped a $21 million price tag on him for one year, a salary that represents a binding offer if Pivetta decides to accept it.

On the surface, Pivetta doesn't seem to be worth over $20 million per season based on production alone. Breslow seems to have made his first real free agency gamble by slapping such a high price tag on Pivetta, but evidence is mounting that the gamble could pay off.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel released contract projections for the top 50 MLB free agents this winter, and predicted that Pivetta would land a three-year, $63 million deal, making it unlikely he would accept the Red Sox's qualifying offer.

Pivetta has long been a scout/evaluator favorite because he seemingly has the tools to be a frontline starter, but he hasn't quite put the pieces together. Many metrics suggest he has both plus stuff and plus command, and he has logged at least 140 innings for straight four years, but he hasn't posted an ERA under 4.00 in any of his eight seasons.

"Organizations that excel at pitching development could look at this as a rate value opportunity in free agency, similar to the Rays signing Zach Eflin for three years, $41 million two offseasons ago before he posted 4.9 WAR in the first year of the deal."

Pivetta, 31, has long been a strikeout machine, and in 2024, he posted a career-high 4.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He surrendered 28 home runs in 145 2/3 innings, one of the highest rates in the league, but there's clearly something under the hood that suggests Pivetta could be a top-flight starter if he ever cuts down on the longball.

And then there's this: not a single free agent accepted the qualifying offer last season, and in the previous two offseasons combined, only three were accepted. Extending someone the qualifying offer has almost become an acknowledgement that the person will get more money on the open market.

Of course, if Pivetta validates the Red Sox's decision to give him the Q.O., then the issue immediately shifts to whether or not it makes sense to pursue a reunion. And if Pivetta is going to get $21 million per season, that could mean other free-agent starting pitcher get much, much more.

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