Red Sox $140 Million X-Factor Predicted To Post Healthy, Productive 2025 Season

A development the Red Sox sorely need...

Feb 18, 2019; Lee County, FL, USA; A general view of a Boston Red Sox helmet. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox hope to be a playoff team in 2025, and there are a lot of factors that could swing that goal one way or the other.

Shortstop Trevor Story has to be considered one of the team's biggest x-factors. Story has missed progressively more games due to injury in each of his first three seasons in Boston, and last year, the tone of the entire campaign changed when he went down in April with a fractured and torn shoulder.

The first three years of Story's six-year, $140 million contract have provided very little return on investment. And some Red Sox fans are already clamoring to see top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer get a shot at the position at some point in 2025.

But if Story can stay on the field, the Red Sox know his superb defense and athleticism on the basepaths gives them the best chance to make a playoff run, before accounting for any possible offensive resurgence to go with it.

On Sunday, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter projected a fully healthy season for Story, totaling at least three wins above replacement (which is a somewhat conservative projection based on his career averages when healthy).

"Over the first three seasons of his six-year, $140 million deal with the Red Sox, Story has provided roughly one full season worth of playing time, tallying 4.1 WAR in 163 games," Reuter wrote.

"With the shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of 2024 now in the rearview and a clean bill of health, the 32-year-old is still capable of being the impact player, and trying to hold off Marcelo Mayer should provide some additional motivation."

Per 162 games, Story averages 5.5 WAR for his career. It's not a perfect one-to-one comparison, because who knows at this point how much injuries have diminished his offensive capabilities, but three WAR feels like a bare minimum if he can give the Red Sox 150-plus games (obviously a big if).

Perhaps Mayer is a more exciting injury insurance policy than the Red Sox have had for Story in years past, but Story is still the safest bet to lock down the shortstop position. Mayer will get his big-league at-bats at some point this season, but it's better if he doesn't need to be rushed.

Health is wealth in Major League Baseball. It would be a massive boost to Boston's playoff chances to keep Story on the field.

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