Red Sox $7.5 Million Starter Predicted To Land With Blue Jays After Rough Free Agency

Will the Red Sox regret losing this up-and-down free agent?

Aug 14, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The Toronto Blue Jays logo during batting practice against the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Not every gamble works out, and one Boston Red Sox free agent seems to be learning that fact firsthand this winter.

When starting pitcher Nick Pivetta was tendered the qualifying offer by the Red Sox in November, a fair contingent of Major League Baseball analysts was surprised. Many of those same folks were surprised when Pivetta subsequently rejected the offer.

Early in free agency, when fellow QO recipient Luis Severino got a three-year, $67 million deal from the Athletics, Pivetta might have felt bullish about his chances to get the contract he sought. But over a month later, as he still sits unclaimed, the 31-year-old righty might regret his decision.

Even though signing him will require the surrender of a draft pick, someone is bound to eventually sign Pivetta if the price sinks low enough. It could even be the team that plays in Pivetta's native country of Canada.

On Monday, insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted that Pivetta would land with the Toronto Blue Jays, who have struck out in free agency so far this winter.

"I was shocked when Pivetta turned down the $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Red Sox, for two reasons: 1) I don’t think he’ll get close to that on the open market, and 2) tying himself to draft pick compensation weakens his value even more," Bowden wrote.

"One team that could make sense to salvage his offseason is the Blue Jays, who have struggled to find players willing to take their free-agent offers. Pivetta, who has a career 4.76 ERA over eight seasons, will turn 32 in February."

Pivetta consistently rates well in peripheral metrics like Stuff+ and swing-and-miss rate, but the fact remains that he never had a sub-four ERA in his five seasons as a Red Sox. That may have led his agents to misread the market for his services, particularly as other suitors have dropped out of the running.

Though he's likely to still get a sizable pay increase from the $7.5 million he made in 2024, this winter is trending towards a loss for Pivetta in the grand scheme of free agency. Perhaps he will exact his revenge on Boston and the rest of the league by finally capitalizing on his immense talents.

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