Red Sox's Most Productive Slugger 'Likely' To Reject Boston's Qualifying Offer

Does Boston even want this big bat back in their lineup?

Sep 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Tyler O'Neill (17) his a three run home run to win the game against the Baltimore Orioles in ten innings at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images / David Butler II-Imagn Images

The rollercoaster 2024 season is nearly over for the Boston Red Sox, but this winter could prove even more chaotic.

It appears for all intents and purposes that the Red Sox will miss the playoffs for a third straight year. They should be able to avoid a last-place finish, but that's not supposed to be the barometer for success in a town like Boston.

The Red Sox have a lot of young, controllable position players on their roster, and most of them hit left-handed. That has created an interesting debacle involving one of the few right-handed bats in the current lineup.

Free-agent-to-be Tyler O'Neill is enjoying his best season since his All-Star campaign in 2021. He's hit 30 home runs in just 102 games, while suddenly leading the Red Sox with an .897 OPS. He's also missed time with an odd assortment of injuries, including three brief trips to the injured list.

The Red Sox have a few choices regarding O'Neill: let him walk away, pursue him on a multi-year contract, or extend him a one-year qualifying offer. All three of those options present their own set of risks and rewards.

On Friday, Jon Becker of Fangraphs predicted that the Red Sox will tender O'Neill the qualifying offer, projected to be worth just over $22 million this season, and that O'Neill will reject it.

"On the surface, (O'Neill seems) like a slam dunk to receive the qualifying offer, and a slam dunk to reject it... The one thing that gives me pause, though, is O’Neill’s injury history and how that might influence teams’ willingness to offer him a multi-year deal worth an average annual value of roughly $20 million," Becker said.

"Understanding this, if the Red Sox give O’Neill the qualifying offer, he could decide it’s in his best interest to accept it. Meanwhile, Boston might not want to pay him $22.1 million next year, instead opting to use that money to bolster other areas of its roster. I still think the Red Sox will extend him a qualifying offer, and that he will turn it down, but it’s not a sure thing."

Becker is certainly right that the Red Sox face a conundrum. O'Neill is the epitome of everything they need when he's right. But there are a lot of risks involved, especially for a team that has acted far less like a large-market team in recent years than they have throughout their history.

It's possible the best outcome for the Red Sox is that O'Neill rejects the qualifying offer, essentially granting Boston an extra second-round draft pick to use on pitching. But it's bad business to offer someone a contract thinking they won't take it, because who knows if that assumption is correct?

Unfortunately, there's no right answer at this point. The Red Sox could live to regret any decision involving O'Neill they end up making. But the fact remains that they're going to have to make one soon.

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