Red Sox's Streaky Hurler Predicted To Reject $21 Million Return Offer By Insider

Is the market strong for this inconsistent righty?

Jul 29, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) is relived of his pitching duties during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Last week, Boston Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow quietly made his first big bet of the winter.

Qualifying offer decisions were due on free agents, and Breslow somewhat surprisingly slapped right-handed starting pitcher Nick Pivetta with the $21 million price tag. Pivetta, who has been in Boston since 2020, can either opt into the offer for one year or reject it, testing free agency and attaching draft compensation to himself.

It was a somewhat risky move from Breslow because Pivetta accepting the offer could, in theory, have put the Red Sox out of the running for other starting pitchers in free agency--not to mention eat approximately a third of the salary cap space Boston has to go before it hits the luxury tax.

However, one insider believes the move will pay off. Jeff Passan of ESPN recently predicted that Pivetta would reject the qualifying offer, citing the Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, and Atlanta Braves as teams expected to bid on him for three-year contracts.

"He almost certainly won't accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency," Passan said. "Teams believe his stuff plays like a frontline starter, and whether it's the Cubs, Orioles, Braves or others, Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter."

Pivetta had a 37-41 record, 4.29 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP in his five seasons with Boston, none of which are stats that scream "three-year contract." But he piled up 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings in those five years, including a noticeable spike since the start of 2023, and teams love tapping into guys with swing-and-miss stuff.

Losing Pivetta in free agency isn't necessarily part of the plan, but getting him to reject the qualifying offer feels like a win. If he heads elsewhere, Boston would be rewarded with an extra 2025 draft pick at the end of the second round. If he's back, then the Red Sox will have a reliable innings-eater with potential to keep improving.

We'll all see soon enough whether Breslow's gamble on Pivetta's qualifying offer pays off. But Passan's report seems like a strong early indication that the gamble was a sound strategy.

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