Red Sox Superstar Projected For $4 Million Raise; Will Free-Agent Budget Be Impacted?

Time to start crunching the numbers...

Sep 28, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) runs off of the field after scoring a run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox may have missed the playoffs, but their All-Star center fielder did his best to keep them in the hunt as long as he could.

Jarren Duran was a revelation for Boston this season. Though he looked promising in 2023 before a toe injury cut his season short, few could have predicted the meteoric rise Duran would author in his 2024 encore.

Duran led all of Major League Baseball with 48 doubles and 14 triples, while also adding 21 home runs and 34 stolen bases. He stuffed the stat sheet like prime Russell Westbrook, and played phenomenal defense to boot. Baseball Reference says he was worth 8.7 wins above replacement in 2024.

Having a great player is always a good thing, but having one on a rookie salary is even more valuable. But Duran will no longer be on that rookie salary in 2025. It's obvious that the first-time All-Star will get paid more, but how much more, exactly?

Duran was recently projected to receive a $4.9 million salary in 2025 by MLB Trade Rumors. He made just $760,000 this season, which was just his second time playing more than half of the Red Sox's games.

In reality, the contributions Duran made to the Red Sox this season were worth dozens of millions of dollars more than that projection. But should the Red Sox, who were just $12 million short of the luxury tax this year, be concerned about how Duran's pay bump will affect the budget?

In short, the Red Sox's pursuit of free agents really shouldn't be impacted by Duran's or any other expected arbitration bumps. Several teams have ten or more players up for arbitration, while boston only has Duran, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford.

Will things get more complicated in future seasons, as more of the Red Sox's young core begins to advance toward arbitration? Maybe, but that's why getting extensions done early, as Boston did with Ceddanne Rafaela and Brayan Bello, can be so valuable.

The Red Sox really have no excuse not to break the bank this winter. If they try to use Duran getting paid closer to what he's really worth as one of them, they cannot be treated seriously.

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