Red Sox Surprisingly Urged To 'Pass' On All-Star Pitcher With 206 Strikeouts

Should Boston steer clear of this fireballing lefty?

Sep 19, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) pitches as Los Angeles Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel (18) leads off second base in the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

It's obvious that the Boston Red Sox need starting pitching, but it's less obvious who they will end up signing.

Free agency is a wild and wacky carousel, and the Red Sox could wind up sitting just about anywhere. They'd love to sign a high-end ace, and with only a few available, they'll need to be aggressive in that objective. At the same time, they could use some depth, and they don't have anyone who throws left-handed.

Yusei Kikuchi of the Houston Astros is an interesting name, because he throws hard, he's a lefty, and he had a fantastic second half of the 2024 season. There are plenty of things to like about Kikuchi, but as one Red Sox writer pointed out recently, there are also some red flags to watch out for.

Dean Roussel of SB Nation urged the Red Sox to avoid Kikuchi in free agency, citing concerns about the lefty's home run rate and how much he will wind up costing.

"If this is the most high-profile signing the Red Sox make, the offseason would be a failure," Roussel said. "But, if you believe the rumor that the Juan Soto pitch included talk of two new arms in the rotation... and Kikuchi is the second of those arms (or if one of these implied arms isn’t Lucas Giolito), I would be alright with that."

"But, ultimately, I get squeamish from the home run rate, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway. If this contract were to end up south of ~$15 million dollars, I’d enthusiastically smash. But, if it’s all too good to be true and I needed to choose between a pitcher like Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, or Kikuchi, I’d pass on Kikuchi."

Kikuchi, 33, allowed 25 home runs for a 1.3 HR/9 rate in 2024, which was still lower than two of the Red Sox's main starters (Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford). He struck out a career-high 206 batters in 175 2/3 innings, totaling a 4.05 ERA and 3.46 WHIP.

Ultimately, Roussel's point that Kikuchi should not be the number-one rotation signing for the Red Sox holds water. But there's still a lot to like about his statistical profile, and he fills a need purely because he's left-handed.

Contract terms are everything, but in a vacuum, the Red Sox could do much worse from a pitching standpoint than signing Kikuchi.

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