Red Sox Top Free Agent Target Predicted To Land $300 Million Deal

Is there any way Boston's ownership will pony up this kind of cash?

Apr 9, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws against the Boston Red Sox during the sixth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox are starved for starting pitching, but will they do something about it this winter?

For three straight seasons, the Red Sox's starting rotation has crumbled after the All-Star break. They've consistently entered the year with starting pitchers unaccustomed to full-season workloads, and those pitchers have predictably worn down as the seasons reached their conclusions.

Something needs to change for the Red Sox, and free agency represents hope for all fan bases praying their teams will add crucial missing pieces. It has long been clear who Red Sox fans hope their team will pursue in 2025.

2021 National League Cy Young winner and current Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes is set to hit the open market after a strong 2024 season. The Red Sox, like many teams, would surely love to have Burnes in their 2025 rotation, but it's possible the cost will simply be too steep.

On Wednesday, Red Sox writer Katie Manganelli of FanSided predicted that it would take an eight-year, $300 million contract for the Red Sox to have any hope of luring Burnes to Boston this winter.

"If the Sox can get to Burnes before another club does this winter, an eight-year, $300 million deal could get him to Boston," Manganelli said. "The $300 million metric falls in the middle of the range of contracts proposed for Burnes' services."

$300 million would be the third-largest total contract value ever handed to an MLB starting pitcher. Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto got $325 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter, topping New York Yankees star Gerrit Cole's 2019 contract by $1 million.

It's a more-than-fair number to project for Burnes, who has a Cy Young award and four straight healthy, productive seasons under his belt. But is there any way the Red Sox match it?

Under former top front office executive Dave Dombrowski, the answer might be more optimistic. Dombrowski handed David Price a seven-year, $217 million deal before the 2016 season, then gave Chris Sale a five-year, $145 million extension in 2019.

Since Dombrowski was fired, however, the most money the Red Sox have committed to a single free-agent pitcher was $38.5 million to Lucas Giolito this past year. And the largest overall pitching contract was Brayan Bello's six-year, $55 million extension signed in March.

As much as Burnes may be worth the money, it seems like a stretch that the Red Sox would buck their own trend sharply enough to get involved in the high-stakes sweepstakes. But it's doubtful many fans would complain if ownership and the front office gave them a surprise.

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