Red Sox Urged To Sign $42 Million All-Star As 'Upgrade' Over Nick Pivetta

Should Boston roll the dice in free agency?

Aug 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) reacts after a play during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Boston Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta is nearing an important decision.

By Tuesday, Pivetta will have to decide whether or not to return to Boston on the one-year qualifying offer he was tendered. The $21 million salary would be binding for 2025, after which Pivetta would once again become a free agent before the 2026 season.

If Pivetta declines the offer, it's tough to say what his market will be based on his inconsistent stats (4.14 ERA in 2024), but excellent raw stuff. The Red Sox, of course, could still pursue a reunion with the veteran righty, but they may have other ideas in mind.

Hannah Filippo recently named a group of free-agent pitchers who could be "Nick Pivetta upgrades" at a similar price point in free agency. Filippo urged the Red Sox to consider Houston Astros left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, a 2021 All-Star, to round out their starting rotation.

"(Kikuchi is) coming off a solid season where he maintained a 4.05 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while posting a career-best 206 strikeouts and 44 walks through 175 2/3 innings. His left-handedness would also balance out the right-heavy Sox rotation," Filippo said.

"Though he struggled at times with the Mariners and Blue Jays, his trade to the Astros at this year's deadline really showed off his ceiling, providing promise for what's to come. Paying $42 million for three years, as predicted by Jim Bowden of The Athletic, would be a small price to pay to add a star to the roster."

In some ways, Kikuchi and Pivetta share a similar profile. On their worst days, they can get knocked all around the ballpark, but they have huge strikeout potential and the ability to dominate hitters in the zone with their fastballs.

Pivetta is two years younger than Kikuchi, which may help account for why his three-year contract projection seems to be $6-8 million higher on average. But it's about as easy to project the success of one as it is the other over the length of that contract.

There's something to be said for familiarity, and Pivetta is comfortable in Boston. But if the Red sox see it wise to swap him for Kikuchi, it would be hard to argue with the logic.

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