Why This Red Sox August Trend Is Killing Their 2024 Postseason Hopes

This past weekend was all too familiar at Fenway Park...

Aug 25, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (7) is tagged out by Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez (28) during the fourth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Why does this happen to the Boston Red Sox every year now?

Sunday afternoon felt like a funeral at Fenway Park as the Red Sox blew a 4-0 lead, sealing a sweep at the hands of the surging Arizona Diamondbacks. Now 67-62, Boston is back to just five games over .500 for the first time since June 30. Months of hard work, practically down the drain.

It was painful, yet it was somehow expected. The Red Sox are making a habit of no-showing during crucial series in the month of August, and it's tanking their season for a third straight year.

Though they have never entered August in playoff position for the past three years, Boston has always been in the mix. The schedule gets tougher, the pitching staff gets worn down, and every huge series at Fenway Park seems to end in a heartbreaking sweep.

There's astonishing data behind that last point. The Red Sox have now been swept six times at Fenway Park in the month of August since 2022. It's a startling trend that seems to have no real explanation.

In the past three Augusts, the Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays (twice), Houston Astros (twice), and Diamondbacks have all walked into Fenway at a crucial moment and stomped on the Red Sox's playoff chances. In total, Boston is now 13-24 at home in August the past three seasons.

Why can't they get a win in front of the Fenway Faithful at such a crucial time of year? Well, there's really no single culprit, but a few easy explanations have certainly emerged.

One, the Red Sox pitching staff has regressed significantly in August each of the last three years. Their team ERA in August was 5.36 in 2022, then 5.33 in 2023, and now 5.60 in 2024. Every year, Boston runs a thin pitching staff into the ground, and by late August, it's crumbled to pieces.

Second, the Red Sox seem to crumble psychologically at this time of year. Whether it was failing to score the game-winning run with no outs and the bases loaded against Jordan Romano, Alex Verdugo showing up late to the game, or Masataka Yoshida getting thrown out trying to stretch a triple, there's a sloppiness to Boston's game that seems to reveal itself around the latter stages of the "dog days."

Whatever is plaguing them, the Red Sox have practically no time to figure it out. They play five more games at Fenway in the span of the next four days, against a last-place Blue Jays club that has quietly played some solid baseball of late.

It felt all season as though the Red Sox were building toward something special, even if they didn't end up making it to October this time around. But now, it feels as though that solid foundation is dangerously close to withering away.

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