Red Sox Top Prospect Could Earn 2025 No. 1 Ranking, But There's A Catch

Number one or not, the Red Sox have to be excited...

sep 20, 2019; st. petersburg, fl, usa; a detail view of boston red sox hats and gloves at tropicana field. mandatory credit: kim klement-usa today sports / kim klement-usa today sports

The Boston Red Sox may be playing themselves out of 2024 playoff contention as we speak, but 2025 still looks promising.

For most of the summer, the Red Sox showcased a mix of speed and power that can rival almost anyone in Major League Baseball on a good day. They will certainly have to improve the pitching staff, but on the whole, Boston appears to be on the up and up.

If these Red Sox are going to be true contenders in the near future, though, they will need the next wave of prospects to live up to their capabilities, particularly at positions that aren't locked down on the big-league club these days.

Much of that pressure rests on the shoulders of consensus top Red Sox prospect Marcelo Mayer, a 21-year-old shortstop with an excellent bat from the left side. Though Ceddanne Rafaela has improved at short as the season has progressed, his future still is best suited in center field, clearing a potential lane for Mayer to become the starter.

Expectations for Mayer have been lofty for a while, and they are continuing to ramp up. Longtime top prospect evaluator Keith Law of The Athletic said Tuesday that Mayer is under consideration for the number-one overall prospect ranking heading into the 2025 season.

"Marcelo Meyer was my No. 2 prospect in my post-draft update of the top prospects still in the minors, and... (he) is on the short list of candidates to be the No. 1 overall prospect at my next update in January/February," Law said.

But Law also has some hesitation with Mayer, and it's the same reason many around Red Sox nation, including manager Alex Cora, have started to become concerned about his future.

"Here’s the bigger catch with Mayer: The guy can not stay on the field. This was his third full season in professional baseball, and he’s never played in more than 91 games in any of them," Law said. "If Mayer isn’t my No. 1 prospect this winter, his injury history will be the biggest reason why."

After being limited to 91 games in 2023 with a shoulder injury, Mayer appeared in just 77 games in 2024 before a lumbar strain derailed his bid to debut at Triple-A. Though he showed well on offense this season, Mayer's injuries have likely cost him a shot at the 2025 Opening Day roster.

Ultimately, Mayer is still young and has time to change the narrative starting to develop around his health. The former fourth-overall pick could be the number-one prospect, or he could not. But it's how he holds up when exposed to big-league competition that Red Sox fans really care about.

More MLB: Former Red Sox Free-Agent Target Dominates Floundering Boston Offense