Inside The Red Sox

Red Sox's Odds Of Getting No. 1 Pick In 2023 MLB Draft With First-Ever Lottery

Boston could claim a top-six draft pick

Scott Neville

Red Sox's Odds Of Getting No. 1 Pick In 2023 MLB Draft With First-Ever Lottery
Red Sox's Odds Of Getting No. 1 Pick In 2023 MLB Draft With First-Ever Lottery /
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Could the Boston Red Sox claim the top selection in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft? 

Thanks to the first-ever MLB Lottery Draft any team that missed the postseason has a shot to claim the top pick.

In previous years, the Red Sox would be slotted into the No. 14 pick in the draft with no ability to move up or down. The new rules allow a chance for Boston to claim a top-six pick, or fall below No. 14 if things go awry for the Red Sox.

All odds calculated via Tankathon

Here are the odds for Boston to claim each pick in the 2023 MLB Draft:

No. 1 Pick -- 0.76%
No. 2 Pick -- 0.90%
No. 3 Pick -- 1.00%
No. 4 Pick -- 1.20%
No. 5 Pick -- 1.40%
No. 6 Pick -- 1.70%

Cannot Get Nos. 7-13

No. 14 Pick -- 78.9%
No. 15 Pick -- 13.6%
No. 16 Pick -- 0.60%

The Red Sox also have a minute chance of getting either the Nos. 17 or 18 picks but that would be nearly impossible. 

These numbers give Boston roughly a 7% chance of landing in the top six, which would be a massive win for Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and company. 

While nothing has been confirmed, the first-ever MLB Lottery Draft is expected to be held during the winter meetings according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, with Dec. 6 rumored to be a potential target date. 

More MLB: Red Sox's Chaim Bloom Primed To Make Splash Trade With Improved Depth

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Scott Neville
SCOTT NEVILLE

Scott Neville covers the Boston Red Sox for Sports Illustrated's new page "Inside The Red Sox." Before starting "Inside The Red Sox", Neville attended Merrimack College, where he earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Communication and Media with a minor in Marketing. Neville spent all four years with Merrimack's radio station WMCK, where he grew as a radio/podcast host and producer.  His propensity for being in front of a microphone eventually expanded to film, where he produced multiple short films alongside his then-roommate and current co-worker Stephen Mottram. On a journey that began as a way to receive easy credits via film classes, he received a call from "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" star Charlie Day. Day advised him to make a feature-length film, which he completed his senior year. While writing the film, Neville completed an internship for United Way as part of their NFL Partnership Program. Neville ran the blog for a team of interns and hosted an internet show called "United Way's NFL Partnership Series" where he interviewed NFL alumni. After college Neville wrote for SB Nation's "Over The Monster," a Red Sox sister site of the flagship brand. His work would eventually lead him to a job as a content producer with NESN, where he would cover all sports. After developing as a writer with the top regional network in the world, he was given the opportunity to join the Sports Illustrated Media Group in his current endeavor as the publisher of "Inside The Red Sox." The successful launch and quick rise of "Inside The Red Sox" led to Neville joining the Baseball Essential ownership group, a national baseball site under SIMG. Follow him on Twitter: @ScottNeville46 Email: nevilles@merrimack.edu

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