Cincinnati Reds Reaction: In-Depth Look at Elly De La Cruz's 2025 ZIPS Projections

A big year ahead for Elly De La Cruz?
Sep 22, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) runs off the field in the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Sep 22, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) runs off the field in the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
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Earlier this month, FanGraphs released their 2025 player projections. Let's dive into the 2025 ZiPS projections for Reds star shortstop Elly De La Cruz:

Consistency at the Plate?

The 2025 projection predicts a .263 batting average and .335 OBP, nearly identical to his 2024 performance (.259/.339). This suggests stability, but with a high BABIP (.353), he could exceed these numbers with improved contact skills.

Power Ceiling?

De La Cruz hit 25 home runs in 2024 and is projected to hit the same amount in 2025, but it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t improve on that number. With a .209 ISO and raw power that ranks among the best in the league,

De La Cruz has all the tools to take a step forward and push for 30 or more home runs. His ability to drive the ball, combined with playing half his games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, makes this projection feel conservative. Give me the over.

Only 54 Stolen Bases?

De La Cruz's 2025 projection of 54 stolen bases feels conservative, especially considering he swiped 67 bags in 2024 while adjusting to his first full MLB season. With elite speed, a sprint speed ranking among the best in the league, and an aggressive baserunning style, there's little reason to believe his stolen base numbers will decline.

Additionally, as he gains experience and refines his approach at the plate, De La Cruz should get on base even more frequently, creating additional opportunities to utilize his speed. If anything, with increased confidence and the Reds’ continued trust in his baserunning abilities, De La Cruz could push for 70+ steals, solidifying himself as the best base stealer in the game. Give me the over!

Cutting Down on the Swing and Misses

De La Cruz's projected 198 strikeouts in 2025 highlight a critical area for improvement, but his underlying plate discipline metrics suggest potential for progress. His O-Swing% (chase rate) dropped to 28.2% in 2024 from 32.4% in 2023, reflecting improved pitch recognition. By continuing to reduce swings at pitches outside the zone, he can put himself in better counts and increase his walk rate.

Additionally, his Z-Contact% (contact on strikes) dipped slightly to 79.4% in 2024, leaving room for improvement. By pushing this number above 80%, he can better capitalize on hittable strikes, turning more of them into balls in play and significantly cutting down on strikeouts.

Another key area is his SwStr% (swinging strike rate), which rose to 13.8% in 2024, highlighting the need for refinement against off-speed pitches and better overall swing efficiency.

Elite WAR Candidate

De La Cruz's projected 4.8 WAR in 2025 is solid but significantly lower than his 6.4 WAR from 2024, a surprising dip considering his trajectory. His defensive WAR is projected to drop, which doesn’t align with his performance in 2024, when he led the league in errors but still ranked near the top in Outs Above Average (OAA). This suggests his defensive range and athleticism already place him among the best, even as he continues to refine his game.

With more experience, Elly is poised to cut down on errors and further improve defensively, making the lower defensive WAR projection puzzling. Coupled with his elite offensive potential, an improved glove could not only see him meet but surpass his 2024 WAR total, cementing him as one of the league’s most valuable players.

Balanced Threat

De La Cruz’s projected OPS+ of 116 in 2025 underscores his status as a well-rounded offensive player, blending power, speed, and the ability to impact the game in multiple ways. However, this projection may not fully capture his immense upside. His raw athleticism, combined with his steadily improving plate discipline, suggests a higher ceiling, potentially pushing him closer to a 130+ OPS+.

If De La Cruz can further refine his approach at the plate by building on his improved walk rate from 2024 and reducing his strikeout rate, he could significantly boost his on base percentage. Additionally, his power metrics, including a projected .209 ISO, highlight his potential to increase extra-base hits.

With these adjustments, along with his elite speed creating havoc on the basepaths, the 23-year-old has the tools to surpass expectations and develop into one of the league’s most impactful offensive forces. A 130+ OPS+ would firmly place him among MLB's elite hitters, matching his incredible talent with consistent production.

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Greg Kuffner
GREG KUFFNER

Greg Kuffner a contributor to Reds On SI. He graduated from the University of Cincinnati and worked for the Sports Information Department during his time as a student. He follows all things Reds year round, including the minor league system.