Cincinnati Reds' Run Differential Starting to Match Win-Loss Record

This isn't a good sign for the final month of the season.

Aug 20, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Carson Spiers (68) pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds have had a weird season. For most of the year they have toiled below the .500 mark (currently 61-65), but their run differential has shown a much better team. That’s rapidly changed over the last week.

With huge blowout losses at the hands of the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays, the Reds' run differential is finding it’s level. At one time it was in the kind of range that some top playoff teams were. Now it sits at +26, almost a 30 run drop from where it was just one week ago.

With the run differential comes the “Pythagorean Win-Loss record.” A metric that shows what a team’s record should be, based on the differential. Right now, with the margin shrinking, even their Pythagorean W/L record would have them a game and a half out of the final wild card spot from the Atlanta Braves.

It’s becoming harder and harder to squint at the positives that used to surround this team. All that remains is a Reds team devoid of October pursuits.

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