Cincinnati Reds Setting Low Expectations for Free Agency With Pessimistic Outlook for 2025 Payroll

Multiple reports cite ongoing television turmoil as reason for conservative offseason expectations

New manager Terry Francona (center) takes questions with President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall (left) and General Manager Brad Meador during an event to introduce the new manager of the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There have been a few reports that the Reds payroll number may not exceed their total for the 2024 season. While that is slightly disappointing to hear, it gives us a bit of an expectation.

According to Spotrac, the Reds total payroll for 2024 was $100,298,613. In an earlier post I surmised that the Reds could push their franchise record for payroll, but reports from both Mark Sheldon and Gordon Wittenmyer cite the volatile television broadcast situation as a reason why the Reds may not aggressively increase their expenditures.

While I don’t like that, this is where we are. So what does that mean for our offseason expectations?

Spotrac estimates the Reds payroll, with arbitration numbers on all eligible players, to be at roughly $68 million. All of the options have been decided, so there is no variability there, and the only thing that could change that is if the Reds extend the qualifying offer to Nick Martinez and he accepts. I find that highly unlikely, as he will be looking for a multi-year deal.

That means there is potentially $32 million to play with.

Outfield is the key area of need as there is no in-house answer to “who do we trust to be our main right fielder in 2025?”

There is also a bit of urgency surrounding possible contract extensions for members of the Reds core. Tyler Stephenson is my pick here and he could receive somewhere around $8-$10 million a year. It’s possible the Reds do this before signing any free agents.

That doesn't give them much room to add to their roster. The Reds need starting pitching depth. They also need a backup catcher with the club option on Luke Maile being declined and Austin Wynns becoming a free agent.

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