Expectations for Nick Martinez Should Look Very Different in 2025

Martinez price tag means performance needs to be even better than last year to match Reds expectations

Aug 30, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez (28) reacts after a play with Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) in the fifth inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Nick Martinez has accepted the qualifying offer from the Cincinnati Reds. He's the only player in Major League Baseball to do so. That means expectations are much higher for the veteran in 2025.

Martinez getting $21.05 million for next season makes him the highest paid player on the team and gives him the highest single season total of money for a Reds pitcher, ever. His clutch contributions in 2024 are just the tip of the iceberg of what he needs to do in 2025.

Based on reporting, a potential trade for a starting pitcher like Brady Singer, who has pitched in no less than 29 starts in each of the last two seasons, is now being scrapped because Martinez took the qualifying offer. Martinez has never made more than 24 starts in a season, and that was his rookie year in 2014.

Martinez set a career-mark for innings last year, but he will need to bump that up even more in 2025. With the new money he is getting, he will be a starter. No more of this "bullpen in May, rotation in August" stuff.

He’s also no longer the depth of the staff. Martinez now needs to pitch like a top of the rotation pitcher. Once he entered the Reds rotation for good last season, he pitched well. He averaged just under six innings per start for 11 starts and had a 2.42 ERA while surrendering just eight total walks. It may be a pipe dream to expect a sub-3.00 ERA from Martinez, but he needs be somewhere around 3.30-3.50 for this to look like money well spent.

There is a tendency to believe Martinez is overpaid. I will reserve judgment until he performs. He outperformed my expectations in 2024 so maybe he can again this year. Though the expectations are way higher than they were a year ago.

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