How Much Better are the Cincinnati Reds Right Now Compared to 2024?

The Reds acquisitions represent a marginal improvement at the moment

New Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona speaks during an event to introduce the new manager of the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds have made three major league additions and have a few more major league subtractions. Based on the Wins Above Replacement of those joining the team versus those leaving, we can draw one conclusion.

The Reds offseason has been slightly less interesting, so far, than we had hoped it would be. They have added to their starting rotation, upgraded their second catcher, and added a strong utility player, but nobody that really pushes the needle very far.

Meanwhile, with the players who have left, either through free agency or trade, the margin of improvement seems a bit thinner.

According to baseball reference, right handed pitcher Brady Singer, infielder Gavin Lux, and catcher Jose Trevino bring in a total of 5.7 WAR.

Likewise, the departure of second baseman Jonathan India, right handed pitchers Buck Farmer, Jakob Junis, and Fernando Cruz, first baseman Ty France, and catcher Luke Maile, the Reds lost 4.1 WAR.

According to that, the Reds are better, but only slightly.

There are a couple of factors that could increase the margin of improvement for the ball club this offseason, but they are hard to quantify now.

Adding manager Terry Francona is sure to represent a bump in production, but there is no metric or statistic to show how much.

Also, the return to health of Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Jeimer Candelario will mean less playing time for players like Noelvi Marte and possibly less playing time for outfielder Will Benson. Both of those players held significant negative value last year.

Obviously a healthy team is a better team, but a healthy team could also lead to addition by subtraction. Out with the bad in with the better.

Heck, maybe that should be the Reds motto this year? Just saying.

As it stands now, it is hard to predict playoffs for this roster. Sure, things could go right and they make it, but right now we are talking about multiple situations turning out the best they possibly could.

What’s most likely to happen is the Reds will be better, but maybe not as good as we hope.

One more move in the coming days or weeks could change that.

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